Impact assessment for Europe (XC7)
A new state-of-the-art Europe-wide climate change risk assessment for farming and food security will be prepared based on the upscaling methodologies explored in MACSUR1 and using economic modelling approaches that incorporate farm management decisions including livestock and land management. The assessment will provide general levels of projected crop and livestock production, flows of (EU-) imported and exported agricultural goods, producer and consumer prices, net farm revenues for the climate in the 2020s, 2030s and 2050s, as well as environmental indicators such as GHG emissions and nutrient surpluses. This level of assessment will also be a reference for describing sore spots in the various scenarios (e.g. concurrent crop failures in major crop producing countries) for food security that are poorly covered by current modelling activities and would require attention in funding agendas. Furthermore, the European assessment will summarize the different strands of cross-cutting activities and allows stakeholders in regions outside the case studies to form an opinion about future climate impacts.
XC7.1=XC16.3 Common baselines for integrated EU-wide impact assessment
XC7.2 Providing ensembles of EU-wide/global consistent sets of crop yield changes
XC7.3. Providing ensembles of EU-wide/global consistent sets of grassland yield changes
XC7.4. Integrated EU-wide impact assessment of ensemble runs
XC7.5. Deepening of the EU-wide analysis with regional/national crop, livestock and economic models (cross-checking results with XC7.4)