Program


XC6 - Regional case studies (organizer: Pier Paolo Roggero)

with XC1 (Model comparison and improvement - Marco Bindi) and XC14 (Impacts on ecosystem services and rural development - Katharina HelmingBackground description of XC6.

Tuesday, 28 October

08:30 - 08:45 Opening of the workshop, agenda (PP Roggero)

08:45 - 09:45 Overview of possible contribution of XC1 (Model comparison and improvement) to XC6 Regional Case Studies and possible outcomes. Mapping model output indicators of ecosystem services in Regional case studies OUTPUT: maps models x ESS indicators (G. Bellocchi, M. Bindi)

09:45 - 10:00 Stakeholder involvement in policy cycle (M. Köchy)

[Coffee 10:15 – 10:30]

10:00 - 11:00 Group discussion (or plenary, depending on no. of participants): illustration of previous experiences, identification of major challenges, actions and avenues for research; preliminary discussion on quality criteria requirements for case studies to be further discussed on afternoon and Wednesday sessions. (G. Bellocchi)

11:00 – 11:30 Design of process for developing one or more paper(s).

14:15 – 15:30 • Intro and negotiation of the proposed  session agenda (PP Roggero)
• Showing Regional Case studies (10’ each)

15:30 – 15:45 Learning from non-MACSUR experiences: “Sustainable Land Management: a research programme based on 12 Regional Projects in 4 Continents” (www.sustainable-landmanagement.net Module A) (A. Paulsch)

15:45 – 16:00 Coffee

16:00 – 16:45 Identifying relevant research questions across MACSUR case studies - interactive (group?) session - Discussion also on the criteria for cross case analyses

16:45 – 17:15 Research questions and cross case analyses: report of group discussion and plenary discussion

17:15 – 17:45 Mapping towards actions: participants will be invited to co-design a pathway towards XC6 deliverables (incl. papers). (PP Roggero)

Wednesday, 28 October

08:30 – 08:45  • Intro and negotiation of the proposed session agenda (K. Helming)
• Impact on ecosystem services and rural development in Regional Case Studies
• Introduction: aims and scope of XC14, draft analytical framework, CICES approach

08:45 – 09:00 Example of contribution to ecosystem service assessment from MACSUR models (M. Schönhart)

09:00 – 09:45 Discussion: requirements for analytical framework; opportunities and challenges for implementing the approach; overview of possible contributions from case studies; examples (K. Helming)

09:45 – 10:00 Roadmap, timeline and task distribution (K. Helming)

Coffee break

10:15 – 10:45 Stakeholder engagement policy (M. Köchy)
- At case study scale
- Building up relationships with JPI FACCE StAB

10:45 – 11:30  • Deliberating on regional case study quality requirements and XC6
• Agenda XC6.1-2-3
(PP Roggero, K. Mittenzwei)

11:30 – 12:00 Conclusions, reporting to Hub, timeline for XC6 (PP Roggero)


XC7 - Impact assessment for Europe (organizer: Andrea Zimmermann)

14:15 - 14:20 Introduction to XC7 (Andrea Zimmermann; 5 min)

14:20 - 14:40 Overview of XC7.1, XC7.4 and socioeconomic and policy scenarios from the XC16 workshop (Andrea Zimmermann)

14:40 - 15:00 Overview of XC7.2 and crop modeling scenarios (Frank Ewert)

15:00 - 15:20 Overview of XC7.3 and grassland modeling scenarios (Susanne Rolinski)

15:20 - 15:45 Discussion: Common protocol for data exchange between XC7.2/7.3/7.4 and discussion (Andrea Zimmermann, all)

Coffee break

16:15 - 16:35 Overview of XC7.5 and data needs (Heikki Lehtonen)

16:35 - 16:55 Overview of XC7.6 and data needs (Katharina Helming)

16:55 - 17:10 Discussion: Data exchange between XC7.5, XC7.6 and other (all)

17:10 - 17:15 Close

Background description of the cross cutting activity


XC8 - Extreme climatic events (organizer: Richard Tiffin)

Background description of the cross cutting activity

In this workshop we will select three plausible extreme event scenarios. We will identify the current knowledge barriers to understanding the impacts of these events on agrifood systems, to inform where modelling is required to improve our understanding. Between this workshop and a follow-up workshop in December, participants will attempt to address the identified knowledge gaps, and develop narrative descriptions of impacts of these extreme events. We aim to produce a paper outlining our selected scenarios, a pathway to quantifying the impacts of extreme events on agrifood systems, and narrative descriptions of the three selected scenarios. Timing is limited in Braunschweig, a rough draft of the paper will be prepared prior to the workshop to help establish an efficient workshop structure. A preliminary program is included below:


Wednesday PM (first part in lecture hall, jointly with TradeM):

14:15               Introduction

14:20-14:50     Talks: Biological responses to extreme events – Crops & Livestock; Modelling crop and economic responses to extreme events; Outputs from the Global Food Security program.

15:50:16:05     Coffee break/networking

16:05-17:45     Group work: Discussions to identify plausible extreme event scenarios, e.g. heat stress during crop flowering, soya production shock in USA and Brazil. Voting to establish top three most interesting scenarios. Identify knowledge gaps or questions that arise from selected scenarios, e.g. how will primary production be affected by an extreme event? How might producers respond to reduced production?


Thursday AM:

08:30-10:00    Group work: Discussion to identify how modelling can be used to address the knowledge gaps or questions that arise from selected scenarios. Which gaps/questions can different models address?

10:00-10:30    Coffee break/networking

10:30-12:00    Group work: Continuation of what gaps/questions can different models address? Next steps -  assigning workers to actions to be completed between this workshop and a follow-up workshop in December.


XC11 - Animal feed story (organizer: Barbara Amon)

Background description of the cross cutting activity

  1. Introduction (Barbara Amon) (15 min, 8:30-8:45)
    1. introduction of XC activity and first task 11.1 (focus on studies relevant for animal feed story and development of region specific livestock diets)
    2. definition of the workshop goal: structuring review / position paper
  2. Topics of interest (Andre Bannink); short introduction addressing the topics (10 min each à one hour, 8:45-10:00)
    1. local, novel protein sources (as alternative to imported protein)
    2. types of roughage as feed source
    3. quality and conservation of roughages
    4. consequence of intensity of farm management and related impact of CC
    5. changes in regional specific diets (i.e. protein content, type of roughage, type of conservation/harvest, protein quality )
  3. Coffee Break (10:00-10:30)
  4. Potential linkages with other MACSUR task (30 min, 10:30-11:00)
    1. listing aspects to be represented / actions to be taken when modelling the consequences for changes in region specific diets
    2. first identification of actions needed to make livestock models suit for purpose
  5. Formulation of next steps and time table (one hour, 11:00-12:00)
    1. actions to be taken
    2. actions by whom
    3. time table

XC16 - Overall scenario development (organizer: Anne Biewald)

In this workshop we will discuss how far we have come with developing agriculturally specific SSPs (also called Representative Agricultural Pathways or RAPs), how we can progress with this development and how the scenarios can be quantified and implemented into the regional models developed in the XC6 (regional case studies). We will discuss the scenario development across the different Ms, as especially the agricultural scenarios need to be reflected in different communities (crop, livestock, economic).

Tuesday, 27 October

In the first half of the workshop we will start with key-note speakers from different Themes:

14:15 - 17:45

  1. Dr. Anne Biewald (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), coordinator of the XCA "Overall scenario development": "An introduction to Europe specific SSPs, developed in the FP7 project IMPRESSIONS"
  2. Dr. Barbara Ammon (Leibniz Institut für Agrartechnik, Potsdam-Bornim),  LiveM:"GHG emission sources in livestock husbandry and mitigation options"
  3. Prof. Frank Ewert (University of Bonn), co-leader of CropM:"Why is it not sufficient to implement agricultural management into economic models only
  4. Prof. Hermann Lotze-Campen (Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research), co-leader of the Global Economics Team in AgMIP, TradeM: "The development and quantification of RAPs in AgMIP, first lessons learned"

    COFFEE BREAK 

  5. Prof. John Antle (Oregon State University), Leader of the Regional Economics Team in AgMIP: "RAPs, Scenarios and Global-Regional Model Linkages: Lessons from AgMIP Studies and Plans for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments"
  6. Dr. Andrea Zimmermann (University of Bonn), leader of the XCA "Impact Assessment for Europe", TradeM: "RAPs and  agricultural policy scenarios in CAPRI
  7. Prof. Heikki Lehtonen (Natural Ressource Institute Finland), TradeM: "Implementing RAPs in the regional case study Finland"

Wednesday, 28 October

In the second half of the workshop we will gather in groups and try to define in structured discussions which aspects of the RAPs should be considered and how they can be translated into concrete scenario quantifications.

 

9.00-10.00 Presentation of different indicators:
-Adaptation measures in agriculture
-Greening in the CAP 
-Rural development policies, Pillar II in the CAP 
-EU-Water Framework Directive 
....

Discussion of further indicators and quantification of the indicators for the different RAPs

10.30-12.00 Discussion on the translation of the indicators to model parametersDefining necessary input for the regional pilot studies from CAPRI and other sources

Background description of the cross cutting activity


C1.5 – Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models (organizer: Christian Kersebaum)

Tuesday 9:00 - 12:00 Mini workshop (Savary)


C1 & C2 - CropM Model improvement and Data analysis (organizer: Christian Kersebaum)

Tuesday

14:15 - 14:35 Introduction and structure of WP1 and WP2 (Kersebaum/Olesen)

14:35 - 15:10 C1.4: Extend crop model assessments to more cropping systems : Work plan, participants, available data, time line (Bindi)

15:10 - 15:45 C2.3: Quantify data gaps for crop modelling: work plan, participants, time line (Olesen)

16:15 - 18:00 C2.5: Empirical analyses of crop responses to climatic variation: work plan, participants, time line (Olesen)

16:15 - 18:00 C1.2: Implementation of extreme events in crop models: work plan, participants, time line  (Trnka)

Wednesday

8:00 - 10:00 C1.5 Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models: participants, available models and data requirements, potential links to crop models (Savary)

10:30 - 11:15 C1.5: Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models: work plan, available data, time line (Savary)

11:15 - 12:00 C2.4 Observed adaptation options and their efficacy: work plan, participants, time line (Savary)

14:15 - 15:00 C2.2 Climate change scenarios: work plan, participants, time line (Semenov)

15:00 - 15:45 C1.3 Long term effects of management and cropping systems on crop production and ecosystem services:  work plan, participants, available data and treatments, time line (Olesen)

16:15 - 17:00 C1.1 Model response to variable site conditions on crop production and ecosystem services: work plan, participants, available data, time line (Kersebaum)

17:00 - 18:00 C2.1: Data compilation, management and presentation:  concept, contributers, rules, data rquirements and available data, time line (Janssen)


C3 - CropM Methods of scaling and model linking (organizer: Frank Ewert)

Tuesday

14:15 – 14:25 Welcome and introduction (Ewert)

14:25 – 14:35 Overview and status of activities in C3 (Hoffmann)

14:35 – 14:50 Updates and results from scaling of management rules (phase 3), (Hoffmann)

14:50 – 15:10 Discussion of results from scaling of management rules (phase 3), (All)

15:10 – 15:25 Data and simulation results from Tuscany (Hoffmann)

15:25 – 15:45 Discussion of Tuscany results, (All)

15:45 – 16:15 Coffee break

16:15 – 18:00 Clarification / discussion of the contributions of participants to phase 3 (missing simulations, models, data, …), (All)

18:00 Dinner

Wednesday

08:30 – 10:00 Clarification of next steps of scaling exercise (All)

10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break

10:30 – 12:00 Procedural planning, e.g. papers, time plan, division of responsibilities, etc. (All)

12:00 – 13:00 Lunch

PDF version of program


C4 - CropM Uncertainty and Risk analysis (organizer: Reimund Rötter)

Thursday

08:30 - 08:40 Welcome and overview on the sessions (Reimund & Daniel)

08:40 - 08:45 Introduction to SESSION 1 “Impact Response Surface Analyses” (chair: RP Rötter, Luke)

08:45 - 09:10 Inter-model variability in wheat yield responses to changes in climate in the IRS1 model experiment (20+5 min) (S Fronzek, SYKE)

09:10 - 09:30 Discussion on next activities/more outputs from IRS1 and access to model results

09:30 - 09:55 Current status of IRS2 study (M Ruiz-Ramos UPM/Spain & R Ferrise UFL/Italy)

09:55 - 10:15 Break/Refreshments

10:15 - 10:35 Progress report on model - aided barley cultivar design (BCD)/ideotyping (F Tao/Luke)

10:35 - 12:00 Break-outs for informal Working Group meetings (e.g. IRS1; IRS2; BCD)

12:00 - 13:30 Lunch break

13:30 - 14:15 Opportunity to participate in plenary (on stakeholders) OR continue in break-out group

14:15 - 14:20 Introduction to SESSION 2 “Framework for evaluating uncertainty & using ensembles of models) (chair: D Wallach, INRA)

14:20 - 14:40 A framework for evaluating uncertainty in crop model predictions (D Wallach, INRA)

14:40 - 15:30 Plenary or group discussion on related activities in MACSUR (CropM & other themes)

15:30 - 15:45 Break

15:45 - 16:05 Using ensembles of models –new lessons for CropM (D Wallach et al.)

16:05 - 16:30 Plenary or group discussion on related acivities in MACSUR (CropM & other themes)

16:30 - 16:45 Wrap-up and close (Daniel & Reimund)


CropM WP leaders meeting (Thursday, over lunch)


L1.3 and L1.4 - LiveM Methods workshop (organizer: Richard Kipling)

The overall objective of Task L1.3 is to bring together expertise from grassland and farm scale modelling communities and to work together towards common goals in farm scale modelling. The workshop will work toward a state of art paper on the characterization of grasslands in farm scale modelling and a work-plan for task activities up to 2017.  
The workshop aims are to:

  • Explore how grasslands are represented in farm scale modelling
  • Discuss strength and weaknesses of current approaches
  • Suggest how the representation of grasslands can be improved
  • Develop a sate-of-art paper on the representation of grasslands in farm-scale modelling
  • Share and learn about possible solutions drawing on experience from MACSUR 1
  • Form plans for further work in MACSUR  and related projects

By bringing together expertise from different disciplines including grassland, livestock and farm scale modellers and by drawing on the extensive experience gained from inter and intra-disciplinary grassland and farm scale modelling activities in MACSUR 1, we expect a very interesting workshop.

The activities of L 1.3 and L 1.4 are complementary and we hope that many of you can attend the whole joint-workshop.

L1.4: Reusing and linking models in livestock farming (Nick Hutchings)

The overall objective of Task L1.4 is to encourage the reuse of modelling concepts and modelling code related to modelling production, GHG emissions and N losses at the farm-scale. The task itself is in two parts. The first part aims to establish an overview (and hopefully a consensus) of the core functions of individual farm components (livestock, manure management etc) and the flow of information needed between these components if they are to operate at the farm scale. This requires a scientific discussion to which a broad range of LiveM participant may wish to contribute and which will be the focus of the L1.4 session in Braunschweig. The second part of the task will be undertaken next year and the details have not yet been finalised. We will focus on the barriers to using model linkers as a method of using model code. This could include a survey of modellers and the test of a number model linkers. This work will be of a more technical nature and therefore relevant for a model builders and IT specialists.

Both parts of L1.4 are intended to result in a scientific paper. The time available to us in Braunschweig is limited, so to focus the discussions, I will coordinate the production of a rough draft prior to us meeting. This will include a brief description of how existing farm models deal with the following components and their interactions.

The physical components potentially present on a ruminant livestock farm are:

  • Livestock (usually further divided according to age and production focus)
  • Fields (usually further divided further into grassland and arable)
  • Access roads, holding yards and feedlots/corrals
  • Livestock housing
  • Manure storage
  • Silage storage 

Tactical management (timescale 0.5 to 1.5 years).

  • animal husbandry (e.g. replacement rate, length of lactation, expected feed ration and feed requirements)
  • grassland and crop rotation planning (e.g. choice of crops, varieties and crop areas, initial designation of grazing and conservation areas, initial manure allocations)

Operational management (timescale <1 day to 0.5 years).

  • animal husbandry (e.g. culling, mating, drying off, balancing feed requirement and supply)
  • grassland and crop management (e.g. fertilisation and manuring, pesticide spraying, cutting/grazing/silage or haymaking/harvesting) 

Since farm-scale modelling is a worldwide activity, I have offered researchers outside Europe the opportunity to make a contribution to the discussion and the resulting paper.

Timing in Braunschweig

There is an overlap between the whole-farm scope of L1.4 and L1.3 which focusses on pasture/animal interactions. After discussions with Mats Høglind, the plan is to allocate most of Thursday 29th to L1.4, before switching to L1.3 in the last period of the afternoon. That way, we ensure that we deal with all farm components and L1.4 can function as an introduction to the more detailed discussions concerning the pasture/animal interactions in the L1.3. The plan is as follows:

Thursday 29 Oct

L1.4
08:30 – 10:00 Animal housing, manure storage, silage storage
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee
10:30 – 12:00 Fields and livestock

14:15 – 15:15 Farm management
15:15 – 15:45 Summing up and time plan for paper
15:45 – 16:15 Coffee

L1.3

16:15 – 17:45 Representation of grasslands in farm scale modelling – overview of current approaches

Friday, 30 October

08:30 – 10:00 What do livestock models require from grassland models in farm scale modelling of production, GHG emissions and N leaching, and how can this be satisfied?

10:00 – 10:30 Coffee

10:30 – 12:00 What do grassland models require from livestock models in farm scale modelling of production, GHG emissions and N leaching, and how can this be satisfied?

13:00 – 14:00 Single issues: modelling vegetative and reproductive growth, species mixtures, uneven distribution of excretal returns, herbage rejection, disease transmission, ...

14:00 – 15:00 Summing up and time plan for paper and work plan

15:00 – 15:30 Coffee


L2.3 - LiveM Modelling adaptation to climate change (organizer: Richard Kipling, task leader: Kairsty Topp)

The workshop will work towards papers on the topic areas covered, and set the work-plan for task activities up to 2017. The workshop aims are to:

  • Explore current modelling approaches to adaptation
  • Share and learn about possible solutions
  • Develop a paper with others on modelling adaptation in livestock systems
  • Form plans for further work in MACSUR 

As part of the workshop, we would like to invite you to give a 2 minute presentation or ‘pitch’ that covers the following issues:

  1. What is the most important issue that you are currently facing in modelling adaptation to climate change?
  2. What additional information/data do you need to advance your modelling work?
  3. What methodological issues do you face?
  4. Who are the users of your results and the information you provide? 

If you cannot attend the workshop, you are welcome to record a presentation and send it to me prior to the event, and we will ensure that the information contained is used as part of the workshop. The objective of the presentations is to inform the discussions, and the development of the paper on the state of modelling adaptation in livestock systems.  Your inputs will also inform the subsequent work-plan. If you would like to attend this workshop, send a presentation, or to know more about it, please get in touch with me (if you have not done so already) and register before the 30 Sept. To help us organise this event effectively, as well as registering on the MACSUR website, please contact us directly before 23 September 2015 to let us know if you want to be involved.


TradeM (organizers: Floor Brouwer, Franz Sinabell)

The workshop will be split in two parts. In the first part invited papers will be presented in order to show the progress of research during the last six months since the meeting in Reading. The second part of the workshop will be used as a platform to organize the work for the coming two years and to inform TradeM researchers about the activities in cross-cutting activities. The program will include reports from workpackage and task leaders. Other elements the development of a publication plan and further work on a set of coherent assumptions about regional case studies.

Wednesday, 28 Oct.
The first part of the workshop will be combined with XC8.

XC8 (Variability and Extreme Climate Events) will select three plausible extreme event scenarios, and identify the current knowledge barriers to understanding the impacts of these events on agrifood systems, to inform where modelling is required to improve our understanding. Between this workshop and a follow-up workshop in December, participants will attempt to address the identified knowledge gaps, and develop narrative descriptions of impacts of these extreme events. We aim to produce a paper outlining our selected scenarios, a pathway to quantifying the impacts of extreme events on agrifood systems, and narrative descriptions of the three selected scenarios.

14.15: Introduction (Richard Tiffin)

14.20: Biological responses to extreme events – Crops & Livestock (Jacob Bishop)

14.40: Modelling crop responses to extreme events – Gianni Bellocchi

15.00: Combining crop and economic responses – A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets (Hermann Lotze-Campen)

15.40: The Global Food Security program – an overview of the process of identifying scenarios and developing responses to them and discussion of main outputs (Richard Tiffin)

16.00: Closure of the presentations in XC8, to be followed after the break for a discussion of next steps.

16.00: Break for coffee/tea

Session 2 – Policy support in MACSURChair: Franz Sinabell

16:15 - 18:15 Short presentations (10 minutes each), followed by a discussion on the findings of MACSUR1 supporting policy.

  • Andrea Zimmermann – Policy scenarios and the European Impact Assessments in MACSUR (plan of work)
  • Klaus Mittenzwei – Climate change and the policy agenda in Norway
  • Heikki Lehtonen – Finnish farmers coping with climate change
  • Gabriele Dono – Room for improving the performance of Italian farming in adapting to climate change
  • Martin Schönhart – Climate change and the policy agenda in Austria
  • Reimund Rötter/Floor Brouwer – Note on the findings in MACSUR 1

18.15 Closure of Session 2

Thursday morning, 29 Oct: 9.00 – 12.00

9.00 Model comparison and model improvements

  • Anna Milford – Update on consumer behaviour in MACSUR
  • Thomas Berger – Agent-based modelling of climate adaptation and mitigation options
  • Andrea Zimmermann – How to explain yield gaps in Europe?

10.00 Coffee

10.15 Current state of RAPs and opportunities for regional modelling; presentation of the concept, Franz Sinabell and Martin Schönhart to introduce

11.30 – 12.00 Next steps in TradeM


XC leaders (organized by Martin Banse)

Coordination of XC activities – Wednesday, over lunch


Managers (organized by Richard Kipling)

Exchange of experiences on managing large research networks like MACSUR – Wednesday, over dinner (back to where it was!)


MACSUR Science Conference 2017 (2017-05-22 to 2017-05-24)

 

The knowledge hub MACSUR aims at improving modelling methodologies and sound case study applications leading to improved assessments of climate change on European agriculture. The conference from 22-24 May in Berlin was a summary of achievements in MACSUR phase 2 and preparations for the potential third phase. People from 21 countries, including S-Korea, USA, Iran, and India attended the meeting to see the 64 oral presentations and 24 posters addressing issues related to assessing and modelling of agriculture and food security under climate change.

MACSUR made significant progress in the linking of models and scientific communities across individual disciplines for contributions to regional and European assessments. As a result of MACSUR activities models could be compared and then improved, crop rotations have been included in modelling, and methods have been refined for upscaling model results. Evaluating and comparing models for assessments at farm-scale and including livestock has been a major step forward for providing the basis for regional and European-scale assessments. At the aggregated European level, adaptation and mitigation, economy and environment, policy and consumer interests meet, so that modelling becomes very complex.

Several important conclusions emerged: Improving animal health and welfare are important adaptation and mitigation strategies; crop, livestock, farm and socio-economic models should be able to respond to adaptation measures and provide links to climate and land use change; linking models across scales, interaction with stakeholders, and cross-sectoral learning are vital for supporting decisions at policy level. With improved modelling of crops and livestock, socio-economic models developed and applied in MACSUR, the Knowledge Hub now provides the links to global and regional economies and links to the internationally agreed shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The key message from the assessments is that future legislative frameworks for mitigation, adaptation and resource management as well as consumer behaviour are crucial for how well regional and European agriculture can deal with climate change.

Research in MACSUR has been documented in more than 200 peer-reviewed publications including significant strategy papers, several special issues of journals, numerous presentations, and a great number of interactions with policymakers and stakeholders along the agro-food chain.

For the immanent period between phase 2 and a potential phase 3 all MACSUR »Themes« intend to maintain networking activities and contribute to the development of a joint proposal for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture across regions in Europe.

MACSUR2017Group small

Conference schedule (overview)

There will be 64 oral presentations and 24 posters addressing issues related to modelling of agriculture and food security under climate change:

  Monday, 22 May Tuesday, 23 May Wednesday, 24 May
morning

09:00-12:00 Pre-conference meetings

09:00-10:30 Plenaries

CropM overview
LiveM overview
TradeM overview

11:00-12:40 Presentations

(4 parallel sessions)

09:00-10:20 Keynote lecture
Martijn Buijsse 

Case Study summary: Pier Paolo Roggero

10:50-12:30 Presentations
(4 parallel sessions)

lunch time  12:00-13:15 Registration, Poster setup

12:40-13:50 Lunch Break
Lunch meeting 1: IRS group
Lunch meeting 2: EU CGRA

 12:30-13:50 Lunch Break
afternoon

13:15 Opening: Dr. Hartmut Stalb, German Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), Chair of the FACCE Governing Board

13:30-14:50 Presentations
Keynote: Frank Ewert

Keynote: Martin Banse and Reimund Rötter — Multi-scale Modelling of Adapting European Farming Systems

15:20-17:30 Presentations
(4 parallel sessions)

13:50-15:30 Theme meetings

CropM LiveM  TradeM 
CropM overview of scientific outcomes and future views (WPs 1-4) Special theme meeting for WP6 "Case studies, stakeholder involvement". Livestock & grassland challenges in MACSUR 3  Economic and trade issues for MACSUR3

16:00 - 17:30 Poster session
(CropM WP leaders meeting)

 

(Schedule preliminary)

13:50  Keynote: Tania Runge

Plenary: summaries of Theme meetings on Tuesday (10' each)

MACSUR2++ strategy and actions: presentations and discussions

FET Flagship

17:00 End 

icon weblink Schedule of presentations — Delegate package (maps, abstracts, rooms)

Keynote speakers

Prof. Dr. Frank Ewert, Scientific Director of Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research and Chair of Crop Science at University of Bonn

Dr. Tania Runge, former chair of the FACCE JPI Stakeholder Advisory Board

Martijn Buijsse, Development Director of the European Initiative for Sustainable Development in Agriculture

Venue

Adlershof con.vent (Rudower Chaussee 17, 12489 Berlin)

The closest airport is Berlin Schönefeld (SFX). You need a short-trip (Kurzstrecke, 1.70 €) ticket to Adlershof (S) or a ticket for zones BC (3.00 €) to travel from SFX to Adlershof (Walther-Nernst-Str). Please consult the fare guide. Tickets are sold from automats in the train station.

 

Significant funding was provided by the Research Council of Norway.

 

 


Organising committee:

Martin Banse, Floor Brouwer, Katharina Brüser, Nándor Fodor, Christine Foyer, Richard Kipling, Martin Köchy, Kathryn Nicklin, Daniel Sandars, Nigel Scollan, Franz Sinabell, Kairsty Topp.

Contact: Nándor Fodor, Martin Köchy

» Flyer for download

Italian stakeholder meeting in Rome (2017-1212 to 2017-12-13)

The Italian partnership of MACSUR organized a stakeholder meeting at the Italian Ministry of Agriculture in Rome on Agriculture and Climate change, “Challenges and Opportunities”: www.agriclimchange.com (in Italian).

 

FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers 2017 (2017-05-11)

Climate change, adaptation and mitigation in agriculture across Europe
A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers

11 May 2017
Brussels, Rue Montoyer 61
on the premises of the Representation of the State of Lower Saxony to the European Union

Following the workshop in 2016, this year's workshop will address the diversity of climate change impacts on agriculture across Europe and future research challenges.

Participation in the workshop is free.  

 

 
12:30 Registration/Lunch
  Presentations and Discussion
13:30  Presentation of the EEA Report »Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in Europe 2016« — Hans-Martin Füssel, EEA
  Agriculture and climate change – Strategic planning and R&D in a global fertilizer company — Frank Brentrup, Yara International
  MACSUR case studies across Europe: opportunities and challenges for farming systems — Pier Paolo Roggero, Univ. Sassari
  Visions for MACSUR Phase 3 (2017-2020) — Floor Brouwer, Wageningen UR (LEI); Martin Banse, Thünen Institute
15:00 Coffee, Tea
15:30

Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe — Introduction/Workshop/Discussion; Franz Sinabell, WIFO & Martin Schönhart, BOKU

   Presentation of group results
16:55 Conclusions
17:00 End

Funding and in-kind support were provided by The State of Lower Saxony, Thünen Institute, Norwegian Research Council, and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

Second Workshop on Animal Health and Climate Change (2016-10-14)

Second Workshop on Animal Health and Climate Change

The second workshop of the MACSUR Tasks 2.1 and 2.2 on animal health and climate change will be held in Ås, Norway on the 14th October 2016.

The aim of the workshop is to bring together researchers working on modelling animal health and climate change impacts to discuss the current work and present the modelling efforts on the impacts of climate change on animal health and the impacts of animal health on greenhouse gas emissions. Two writing sessions are dedicated to work on proposals which will be progressed into papers. A discussion session at the workshop will focus on funding opportunities for the group.

A survey has been prepared to gather an overview of the capabilities of the current models on animal health and climate change. If you are interested to join the workshop and/or the future activities of these tasks, please fill in the attached survey and send it to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. by 30th of September 2016.
Please also find attached the draft agenda of the workshop. Registration deadline for the workshop is 7th October 2016.

Results of our research community have recently been published in Environmental Research, highlighting the challenges in modelling animal health and pathogens in the context of climate change. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393511630319X

Please see below a draft agenda and plans for the workshop and some practical details regarding accommodation and transport. Coffee and lunch are provided free of charge through the funding allocated to the organization of workshops and conferences in MACSUR2 by the Norwegian Research Council. However, you need to pay for your own travel and accommodation.

Venue

The venue is located in NMBU’s Ås campus, 30 km south of Oslo.

Details

TradeM International Workshop 2016 (2016-10-09 to 2016-10-12)

Assessing climate change adaptation and mitigation options: The regional and policy dimension

Tromsø – Trondheim, Norway
on board of the Hurtigruten Coastal Express
9-12 October 2016

Aims and objective

It is well established that Europe will face considerable regional differences with regard to climate change. This requires the regional dimension of climate change for a spatially diverse European agriculture to be better understood. Studies of policies that enhance resilience in the food sector and that formulate policy recommendations have to take into account the spatial nature of agriculture and the regional dimension of climate change. The workshop will focus on applications and methodological advancements.

The event has three major goals:

(i)   to discuss adaptation and mitigation options of agricultural systems under climate change

(ii)  to study and assess regional approaches implementing adaptation and mitigation options in agriculture

(iii) to advance  policy implications of climate change for agriculture and food security

Keynote speakers

Peter Wehrheim Head of Unit “Land Use and Finance for Innovation”, European Commission, DG Climate Action
Alan Mathews Prof. em. Trinity College, Dublin
Eric Nævdal Senior Research Fellow, Frisch Centre at the University of Oslo

Ignacio Perez Dominguez

Senior Researcher, Institute for Prospective Technical Studies (IPTS), JRC Seville

Results

Twenty-five people attended. The workshop started with an introduction to Arctic ecology and regional development. Four keynote speakers from policy, science and JRC gave a great mixture of high quality input into the workshop. It fuelled the discussions and was well appreciated by the participants. Fifteen very interesting and engaging presentations throughout the workshop showed that CC mitigation is a very important research undertaking, that LULUCF in crop and animal production play an important role, and that the role of agriculture in the CC policy debate is high on the agenda.

Presentations of the workshop have been published in FACCE MACSUR Reports, volume 9

 

Acknowledgements

The workshop was sponsored by:

NRCNIBIO Logo

XC workshop (2016-10-13)

Aims of the workshop

  • highlight progress in the cross-cutting activities
  • facilitate collaboration across Themes for achieving the planned project deliverables
  • contributions to a paper on Research gaps in modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security.

Agenda

  • 08:30 Registration
  • 08:45 Welcome
  • 08:50 Presentations of intermediate results and plans by each cross-cutting activity (member log-in required)
    • XC1 - Model comparison and improvement (Gianni Bellocchi)
    • XC2 - Scaling (Claas Nendel)
    • XC3 - Uncertainty and risk assessment
    • XC4 - Capacity builing
    • XC5 - Interaction with stakeholders (Martin Köchy, Richard Kipling)
    • XC6 - Regional case studies (Pier Paolo Roggero)
    • XC7 - Impact assessment (Andrea Zimmermann)
    • XC8 - Impacts of extreme events (Jake Bishop)
    • XC9 - Yield gaps (Martin Köchy for René Schils)
    • XC10- New technologies
    • XC11- Feed quality, utilisation, protein availability (André Bannink)
    • XC12- Farm-scale risk assessment
    • XC13- Impacts of consumer behaviour (Klaus Mittenzwei for Anna Milford)
    • XC14- Impacts on ecosystem services and rural development (Katharina Helming)
    • XC15- GHG mitigation
    • XC16- Scenario development (Franz Sinabell and Hermann Lotze-Campen)
  • 12:20 Lunch
  • 14:00 Potential collaborations in H2020-2017 or COST actions
  • 14:30 XC contributions to MACSUR's research gap report
    • CC impact scenarios at farm level
      • direct/indirect CC impacts, data needs and availability, model selection, uncertainty
      • defining strengths of impacts
    • lead persons for text contributions, deadlines, formats
  • 14:45 Organisation of XC activities in MACSUR 3 (contingent on emerging plans)
  • 16:15 Break – Opportunity for networking
  • 17:00 End

Venue

SCANDIC Oslo Airport

The hotel is within hiking distance (3.5 km) of Oslo Gardermoen Airport. Exit the airport towards Radisson Hotel, keep right and follow Edvard Griegs vegen (or follow signs to P4, there's a free bus shuttle to P4 that saves you 2 km). You can also take shuttle bus S55 (70 NOK, every 20 minutes) from the arrival level of the airport.

Mind the address if you intend to stay in a different place. This is NOT Scandic Gardermoen, Jessheimvegen!

Location

Norway
Phone: +47 23 15 59 00
Fax: +47 23 15 59 11
E-mail:

 

Dates

Registration deadline: 25 September (registration after the deadline means you might be without dinner).

The workshop is right after the TradeM workshop. You could take flight SK355 from Trondheim (11:25) to Oslo (12:20).

Pre-workshop dinner: 12 October 2016, 19:00

Workshop: 13 October 2016, 9:00 - 17:00. 

Participation is free thanks to the generous support of the Research Council of Norway. NRC

 

 

 

 

LiveM 2016 Conference

Conference banner

The conference was jointly hosted by PIK and ATB-Potsdam to:

  • Present advances in the modelling of grassland-livestock production systems in the context of future food security and sustainable production under climate change
  • Highlight the future challenges and research priorities for livestock and grassland modelling
  • Bring together modellers across nations and disciplines to share ideas, spread best practice and develop new collaborations as part of an integrated research community

Many thanks to Susanne Rolinski and the organising teams at PIK and ATB Potsdam for hosting a successful and stimulating conference in June. Around 50 delegates attended the meeting, and were treated to a range of presentations on themes including Efficiency of livestock production in the context of climate change, Climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation, modelling with stakeholders, and Model comparison, linkages and challenges. The conference was held in the cupola of an old observatory at the heart of the PIK campus, providing an unusual and memorable backdrop to discussions. We present a number of resources related to the meeting:

Check out the conference proceedings, now published in Advances in Animal Biosciences

PDFS of many of the presentations are also available to view in FACCE MACSUR Reports

The conference was supported by direct and in-kind funding by Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research and the Research Council of Norway.

Image 20160826 at 13.15

FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers (2016-05-24)

Supporting policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation for European agriculture
A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers

24 May 2016
Brussels, Rue Montoyer 61
on the premises of the Representation of the State of Lower Saxony to the European Union

The 2016 MACSUR workshop for policymakers focused on impacts of climate change on agriculture in several regions across Europe and how local adaptation measures might conflict with EU and national policies. MACSUR case studies indicated that such conflicts exist or will become likely in the areas of water use, fertilisation (nitrate directive), and land ownership. Presentations by representatives of the European food and beverage industry, the European landowners, and the Commission showed agreement on future challenges for food production: climate change, growing global population, increasing average age in industrialized countries. For achieving global food security in 30 years it will become necessary to find solutions that are economically sound, satisfying for farmers and consumers, and gentle to environment and climate.

Among the solutions, some of which are already explored in European regions, are: improved agricultural technologies so that more and better food can be produced with less amount of resources; production of feedstuff only on agricultural land not suited for food production; avoidance of food loss (during production, processing, and post-consumer); regulations at national and EU level that consider regional climate and environment.

Concrete plans call for detailed calculations by models, which, however, cannot be produced at short notice because of the many links and feedbacks among climate, environment, trade, agriculture, society, and nature that must be specified. Therefore, even closer and more regular harmonization of scenarios, options, and plans among decisionmakers, researchers, food industry, farmers, and consumers are necessary for gradually finding sustainable solutions.

A near-term research plan (AgEurope50) and a long-term grand European research initiative (EU Flagship) on 'climate change impacts along the agro-food chain' was proposed by MACSUR that could contribute significantly to producing solutions. This initiative must be supported by enough stakeholders (by rating the idea on a scale of one to five stars - http://macsur.eu/flagship) in order to keep it on the top of the list.

 
12:30 Registration/Lunch
Part 1: Updates from the FACCE MACSUR project 
13:30  Introduction to FACCE JPI and MACSUR — Jurgita Lekaviciute, INRA, France; Floor Brouwer, Wageningen UR, the Netherlands
 13:40 How do European policies (CAP, Nitrate Directive, Water Framework, etc.) contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation in MACSUR case study regions? — Heikki Lehtonen, Luke (Natural Resources Institute), Finland
14:10 The mitigation potential in European agriculture — Nigel Scollan, Aberystwyth University, UK
14:40 Discussion
15:00 Coffee, Tea
Part 2:  
Actions supporting adaptation to and mitigation of climate change in agriculture
 15:00 Registration
15:30 
16:20 Discussion: Future priorities for actions, policies and research
17:00 Closing remarks
17:05 End

Funding and in-kind support were provided by The State of Lower Saxony, Thünen Institute, Norwegian Research Council, and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

iCROPM2016 (2016-03-15 to 2016-03-17)

iCROPM2016 Group medium ZALF smallbanner2 1024

 Crop Modelling for Agriculture and Food Security under Global Change

International scientists at the iCROPM2016 Symposium report recent advances in crop modelling and identify challenges and new opportunities

With more than 300 scientists from 47 nations, the iCROPM Symposium in Berlin brought together the major part of the international crop modellers’ scene to exchange ideas on improvement and application of crop simulation models to better support agricultural production and food security under global change. The 3-day symposium, 15-17 March, 2016, hosted by the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), was jointly organised by the MACSUR and AgMIP research networks.

A total of 85 oral and 130 poster presentations centred on recent scientific work related to model improvement, generation and use of experimental data, and on advancements in model applications considering new methods of model intercomparison, uncertainty propagation and scaling. While the main emphasis was on crops, progress in modelling in related fields, like grassland and vegetation modelling, was also addressed as well as new approaches of model implementation making use of recent software developments. Improvements in crop and cropping system modelling referred to models from field to global level and included efforts to link crop modelling to genetics. Studies to improve modelling of relationships between plant production, pest damage, resource use and management including effects on water and nutrient cycles were also presented.

In summary, the Symposium highlighted the enormous potential for the use of modelling in tackling societal challenges related to agriculture, food security and the environment in Europe and beyond if novelties in technology and data generation are embraced and if the interaction with related disciplines and stakeholders is further strengthened while keeping up good scientific standards.

For an extended summary, addtional photos and more visit www.icropm2016.org.

(04 April 2016, K Brüser, F Ewert, C Nendel)

 Impressions of the Symposium

iCROPM flags; F. Ewert thanking the scientific committee

P. Reidsma presenting; Discussions with the audience; W. Mirschel

Discussions among researchers at iCROPM

 

 

Pre-Conference Announcement:

Global agricultural systems modelling community convening in Berlin

Simulation models for the growth and development of crops have become very popular, especially in the context of climate change impact assessments. But they are also widely used in other fields of agronomy. Agronomists apply models to investigate how present and future climate, different existing and new cultivars and alternative soil and crop management practices will affect the yields, water use and other outputs of crops and how that affects food security and the environment at various levels – from farm to global. In March 2016, agricultural systems modellers will meet in Berlin, Germany, for an international symposium, coordinated by scientists from Germany, Finland, Australia and the USA. The agricultural systems modelling network spans the whole globe and more than 300 participants are expected to show up for the event, organized by the Leibniz Centre of Agricultural Landscape Research in Müncheberg, Germany. Crop models have developed into indispensable tools in the ongoing discussion on global food security, but only their consistent application through global co-operation assures their usefulness and credibility at the interfaces of agronomy with economics and in informing policy-making.

The symposium chairs and the local host

Frank Ewert (DE), Ken Boote (USA), Reimund Rötter (FI), Peter Thorburn (AU) and Claas Nendel (DE)

 

 

 

FACCE MACSUR Joint Workshops 2015 (2015-10-27 to 2015-10-30)

JointWorkshops201510Banner

The workshops took place in Braunschweig and gathered 105 participants. The workshops provided an opportunity to exchange information and to align plans across the various groups. Below is a condensed summary of session results. For more details please refer to FACCE MACSUR Reports 7:H0.3-M1 and see the schedule.

XC1 – Model comparison and improvement

Activities were integrated in Session XC6.

(persons to contact: Marco Bindi, Gianni Bellocchi)

Session XC6 – Regional case studies

 [No report provided]

(person to contact: Pier Paolo Roggero)

Session XC7 – Impact assessment for Europe

The workshop aims were to 1. Inform each other about the different tasks and perhaps challenges therein. Additional aspects to be considered were the consistency of scenarios across TradeM, CropM and LiveM and the timing of the tasks. 2. Discuss data exchange issues in terms of (1) agreeing on a draft protocol for data exchange between crop, grassland and economic models and (2) clarifying data needs of the regional case study models involved in XC7 (task XC7.5) and the non-modelling assessment (task XC7.6).

Main results: • Discussions revealed an inconsistency in the preferred scenarios by crop and economic modelers. This will be clarified as soon as possible. • Crop and grassland modelers will be able to provide yield changes based on consistent climate scenarios and models and at a resolution suitable for the economic model CAPRI. A common protocol will be used for data exchange. • XC7.5 will compare the baseline assumptions of CAPRI and the regional case studies based on information provided by XC7.1. Results will be compared based on CAPRI result tables compiled by TradeM. • XC7.6 will set up an indicator framework for assessing ecosystem services. The indicator framework will be filled with modeling results at different regional scales.

(This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

Session XC8 – Extreme climatic events

The aim of this cross cutting activity was to develop a better understanding of the impacts of extreme events on food security in Europe.

Our group discussion highlighted that collectively we felt unclear about what food security actually means in a European context. To understand the impact of extreme events, we must first be able to identify when an extreme event in the European food system has occurred. We decided not to focus on quantifying the effect of extreme events on crop production, as this research is still at a very early stage, and there are many possible extreme events to consider.

It was decided that a useful output would be to establish various indicators of food (in)security in Europe. The aim of this work is to develop some simple metrics or indicators, that an extreme event has occurred in the food system. These may then be used to translate outputs from crop- and economic- models (e.g. changes in production, price increases...) to more tangible food security issues in Europe (e.g. use of food banks, farm closures, increased government spending to compensate farmers...).

We identified that many Europeans are unlikely to become food insecure as a result of extreme climatic events. However, some groups, at a range of scales, could be very vulnerable. We hope to explore these, and other, indicators of food (in)security in Europe.

Governments can be vulnerable: Indicators could include level of government spending to compensate farmers following poor harvests, changes in trade balances, changes in exchange rates.

Consumers across the region can be vulnerable if they spend a high portion of their income on food: Indicators could include the use of food banks.

Some vulnerable communities exist (for example, Welsh hill farmers, smallholders): Indicators could include farm closures.

For more information contact Jacob Bishop, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Session XC11 – Animal feed story

 [No report provided]

(Barbara Amon)

Session XC14 – Impact on ecosystem services and rural development

Activities were integrated in Session XC6. 

 [No report provided]

(Katharina Helming)

Session XC16 – Overall Scenario Development

In this workshop the state of the art of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) and relevant characteristics from the perspectives of different communities were presented.

We discussed how Europe specific RAPs can be extended and further specified based on: 1. global SSPs, 2. EU-SSPs 3 (developed e.g. in the FP7-project IMPRESSIONS), global, regional RAPs developed in AgMIP.

We identified and specified the different indicators needed to develop EU RAPs. For example some goals of the CAP, which are important EU-RAP indicators:
• Income in the farming sector • Rural development • Consumer prices (Market stability, food supply) • Environmental sustainability (Water, GHG, Soil?) • Productivity in agriculture (Competitiveness)

We developed a rough outline of EU-RAPs:
• EU-RAP1: strong CAP, strong shift on environmental regulation, no producer support, green CAP with strong mititgation component
• EU-RAP2: BAU
• EU-RAP3: Europe breaks up, rich countries support farmers with national subsidies, poor countries do not
• EU-RAP4: Europe is divided in a poor and a rich part. In the rich part green CAP, in the poor part no CAP
• EU-RAP5: free market world, strong institutions, weak on enviromental regulations, low domestic polices? Local green CAP without mitigation

We presented a rough outline of EU-RAPs as well as how the European economic model CAPRI could support the implementation of EU RAPs to the session of the regional pilot studies developed in the XC6 (regional case studies)

(Anne Biewald, Franz Sinabell)

Session C1.1 – Model response to variable site conditions on crop production and ecosystem services

The topic of the task session was the introduction to a crop model exercise to evaluate model responses to variable site conditions regarding crop production and ecosystem services. Three data sets were identified to be used by an ensemble of models to test their sensitivity on variable site conditions regarding crop yield, water and nitrogen contents in soil. Data preparation will be finished by January 15th, the exercise will be run by the participating modelers in 3 steps during 2016 and two papers are planned to be drafted by end of 2016/beginning of 2017.

(Christian Kersebaum)

Session C1.3 – Long term effects of management and cropping systems on crop production and ecosystem services

The topic of the task session was to evaluate and compare the long term behavior of crop models with a special focus on soil organic matter dynamics. Models will be compared using data of long term experiments against measured variables. Data sets were presented by P.P. Roggero (IT), D. Ventrella (IT), K. C. Kersebaum (DE). J.E. Olesen also suggested to use data sets from a related project. To look at long term behavior of models under climate change scenarios including adaptation options an extension of the ongoing crop rotation and organic matter management study in Czech Republic was envisaged for sites across Europe running models over a period of 120 years using transient climate scenarios.

(Jørgen Olesen)

Session C1.5 – Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models

 1.1. Definition of steps (milestones) of activities under C1.5

The following steps were derived from the description of the task:

  1.  Identify relevant pests and diseases for major crops in Europe
  2.  Identify what models exist for these pests and diseases
  3.  Existing data on crop health from variety trials (what is available in terms of field data)
  4. Development of models
    1. Address occurrence of pests and diseases
    2. Models for the impact of pests and diseases
  5. Regional Applications of case studies

1.2. Countries represented in Task C1.5

The break-down of participants/counties by milestones is as follows.

Milestones Italy Norway UK France Sweden Poland Germany Denmark
1. Identify pests and diseases X X X X X x X X
2. Available models X     X X? X ?  
3. Available Data X X   X? X X? X X
4. Development of Models X     X X X X  
5. Regional Application             X  

1.3. Definition on main crops to address in C1.5

Existing crop models in MACSUR: Wheat (many models), barley, maize, among others; possibly starting grapevine (VITE model, STICS, Nvino); MACSUR might model potato growth (CROPSYST, STICS, HERMES), but not a focus. Based on (1) the importance of crops in Europe, (2) existing P&D research and expertise available among participants of C1.5, and (3) existing models in MACSUR, the selectd target crops in C1.5 are: Wheat, Potato, Grapevine. Additional possible crops in C1.5: Maize, Sugarbeet

1.4 (Multiple) Pathosystems to be considered in C1.5

Wheat pathosystem:

  Yield loss Quality losses Impact of current control Emerging
P. striiformis X      
P. graminis       X
Powdery mildew X      
P. triticina X      
Septoria’ blotches X      
Fusarium head blight   X    
Tan spot X      
Soil-Borne Viruses        
Wheat dwarf virus       X
BYDV       X

Potato pathosystem:

  Yield loss Quality losses Impact of current control Emerging
P. infestans X x X  
Rhizoctonia   X    
Nematodes X      
Virus X      
Early blight X      
Ralstonia       X
Colorado potato beetle X      
Erwinia X X    

Grapevine pathosystem:

  Yield loss Quality losses Impact of current control Emerging
Powdery mildew X X x  
Downy mildew X   X  
Botrytis X X (x)  
Berry moth X X    
Black rot X     X
Japanese beetle       X

(This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

Session C3 – Methods of scaling and model linking

[No report provided]

(person to contact: Frank Ewert)

Session C4 – Uncertainty and risk analysis

[No report provided]

(person to contact: Reimund Rötter)

Session L1.3 – Bringing together grassland and farm-scale modelling

 [No report provided]

(person to contact: Mats Högbom)

Session L1.4 – Reusing and linking models in livestock farming

The task L1.4 deals with modelling the interactions between farm components (livestock, grassland, animal housing, manure storage, farm management). The argument for this task is as follows. Within agriculture, there has been a long history of model building. This has left a legacy of models, most of which have functionality beyond the initial purpose for their development. Nevertheless, many models are not reused, representing an inefficient use of the considerable resources required to develop new models. Models can be reused by linking existing models but this presents both scientific/conceptual and technical challenges. The former arise because different models may vary in their concepts of the same components. In technical terms, model documentation may be inadequate, models may be implemented in different programming languages/environments or there may be legal or property rights barriers. Past attempts to link models within agriculture have been either via bespoke or generic linkage systems. The former have the advantage that they can be closely tailored to a given objective, but involve a considerable cost. Generic linkage systems provide a framework that can potentially reduce the investment necessary to link models. However, using such linkage systems incurs a cost in terms of the time necessary to learn how to use them and may constrain the functionality that can be achieved. 

The conceptual issues that might hinder the reuse of models are:
• Existing models neglect/under-represent important processes — Ruminant livestock systems vary widely (e.g. extensive beef, intensive dairy) and existing models were developed for a different system
• Lack of scientific agreement about processes — Especially the detail with which to represent them
• Cultural differences — e.g. different feed energy accounting systems. The objective of the session was to agree the key functions of farm components, the exchanges of information between them and the frequency with which this should occur.

(Nick Hutchings)

Session LiveM 2.3 – Adaptation in livestock production

The purpose of the workshop was to explore the state of the current thinking and modelling of adaptation to climate change with respect to livestock production. This included modelling the biophysical system, and the effects on the economics of the farming system.

Presentations were invited to explore the current state. Some key points from the discussion are:

  • We need to remember that models may not include some relationships that will become important under climate change (perhaps not yet recognised)
  • The length and severity of extreme events may limit available management choices, and this is hard to model (e.g. a model may usually apply irrigation in a drought, but previous droughts, or a long drought may mean that irrigation water is not available)
  • Farm models can be divided into management-centred economic models, or biophysical models with a limited representation of management (skills/knowledge limitations and complexity of dealing with both domains).
  • The workshop explored the key adaptations that are deemed to be of relevance to farming systems, and the technical issues, gaps, how to make the outputs from models more accessible, which were ranked in terms of complexity.

(Kairsty Topp)

Session TradeM

 [No report provided]

(Floor Brouwer)

 

FACCE MACSUR Workshop for policymakers (2015-05-06)

Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades:
— why worry when you have CAP?
A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers

6 May 2015
Brussels, Rue Montoyer 61
on the premises of the Representation of the State of Lower Saxony to the European Union

Local agricultural production is strongly affected by the weather. Climate change is likely to cause increases in extreme weather events, as well as underlying changes in average conditions. If agriculture is to be sustainable and profitable, farmers will need to adapt to these changes. What impacts could climate change have on farming systems across Europe, and how important are they likely to be compared to the impacts of policies?

In order to better answer these questions, the FACCE JPI knowledge hub MACSUR, compris­ing about 300 researchers in 18 countries, is assessing the current state of the art in the modelling of agri­cultural systems for food security. At this workshop we invite policymakers and other stakeholders to learn about regional impacts of climate change on European agriculture relative to policies and to inform the research network about the consultation needs of stakeholders.

The presentations are available in FACCE MACSUR Reports volume 6.

 
12:00 Registration/Lunch/Videos/Posters
Part 1: Modelling for understanding climate change impacts on agriculture 
  Presentations and discussion 
13:15 Welcome and introduction to MACSUR approach (Martin Banse, Thünen Institute)
13:30 Crop production (Katharina Brüser, University of Bonn)
13:50 Livestock and feed production, especially dairy and beef (Jantine van Middelkoop, Wageningen UR)
14:10 Producer price levels (Floor Brouwer, LEI @ Wageningen UR)
14:30 Coffee, Tea
   
Part 2: 
Regional impacts of climate change, observations and projections
 14:30 Registration
  Presentations and discussion
15:00 Welcome and overview of MACSUR results (Martin Banse, Thünen Institute)
15:10 Northern Savo, Finland (Perttu Virkajärvi, Luke Finland)
15:30 Mostviertel, Austria (Martin Schönhart, University of Natural Resources & Life Sciences)
15:50 Oristano, Sardinia, Italy (Pier Paolo Roggero, University of Sassari)
16:10 Impacts of CAP relative to weather, adaptation (Ana Iglesias, Technical University of Madrid)
16:30 Coffee, tea
16:45 EU-level assessments and scenarios (Hermann Lotze-Campen, PIK)
17:15 »The role of European agriculture in a changing world. How to achieve regionally flexible adaptation policies?«
Panel discussion with Maddalena Dali' (DG Clima), Herwig Ranner (DG Agri), Louis Fliervoet (the Netherlands' Ministry of Economic Affairs) and Tania Runge (the FACCE Stakeholder Advisory Board and COPA-COGECA). Moderator: Katharina Helming (Center for Agricultural Landscape Research)
18:00 - 18:15 Wrap-up
18:30 End


Funding was provided by The State of Lower Saxony, Norwegian Research Council, and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

MACSUR Science Conference 2015 (2015-04-08 to 2015-04-10)

The MACSUR Science conference took take place on Wednesday 8th and Thursday 9th April 2015 in Reading UK, and was followed on Friday 10th April with a workshop on within theme and cross cutting activities (aimed at those who will be involved in planning MACSUR 2).

Workshop abstracts and most presentations are available for download in FACCE MACSUR Reports 5.

Please see the  programme below for further details of the conference content and other useful information.  

 

TradeM International Workshop 2014 (25-27 November 2014)

Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector
Climate change, food security, and agricultural production interact in complex ways. A major challenge for scientists is to understand and assess the biological, economic, and ecological interdependencies in the context of climate change and food Security. More and better knowledge is necessary to aid politicians, stakeholders and farmers in their decisions.

The Knowledge Hub FACCE MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with ClimateChange for Food Security) (www.macsur.eu) assembles the excellence of Research in Europe in crop, livestock and economic modelling. MACSUR cooperates with the AgMIP community (www.agmip.org) and particularly welcomes AgMIP contributions.

The workshop will bring together researchers with interest in Integrated assessment approaches which are used to analyze agriculture, food security and climate change. 

The event has four major goals:

  1. to critically discuss the state-of-the-art and future perspectives of Integrated assessment approaches
  2.  to study and assess examples of applied modelling approaches integrating crop, livestock, and economic models
  3. to foster international collaboration in the research areas of food security, climate change, and agrosystem modelling
  4. to plan and identify next steps to achieve TradeM contributions to MACSUR goals

Keynote speakers:

 

John Antle, Oregon State University, and co-leader of the Economics Team of AgMIP
Josef Schmidhuber, FAO
Eric Nævdal, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research at the University of Oslo

Presentations: FACCE MACSUR Reports 4

Venue: Hurdalsjøen Hotel 

Funding: Norwegian Research Council and BioforskBioforskNRC

 

LiveM Modelling and Research Colloquium (14-16 October 2014)

Conference proceedings are now published here: Advances in Animal Biosciences.

Conference report

IMG 2343

The LiveM conference in Bilbao took place between 14th and 16th of October 2014 at the Maritime Museum on the banks of the Nervión-Ibaizabal estuary, bringing together around 45 MACSUR researchers from LiveM, CropM and TradeM, as well as representatives of ATF (Animal Task Force), EAAP (European Federation of Animal Science), the GRA Animal Health and GHG Emissions Intensity Network, AgMIP (Agricultural Modelling Improvement Programme) and the SOLID (Sustainable, Organic and Low Input Dairying) project.

The aims of the meeting were to showcase modelling research related to LiveM and MACSUR, to bring closer ties between partners and the external initiatives represented, and to hold discussions on the future direction and purpose of the theme as the MACSUR knowledge hub moves towards its second phase from 2015-2017.

Before the meeting began, farm-scale modellers met at the Basque Centre for Climate Change to discuss and synthesize the results of the farm-scale modelling exercise carried out over the summer, and the outcomes of this workshop were presented during the main conference.

Day 1 of the conference focussed on grassland and farm-scale modelling, two areas of expertise which will be brought closer together in MACSUR phase 2. Gary Lanigan (Teagasc) began the day with a keynote presentation which focussed on the value of modelling as a complement to experimental research. Gary’s talk focussed on the use of modelling in risk assessments of climate change and in verifying the consequences of management changes on carbon sequestration and N2O emissions, while highlighting the importance of models as decision support tools for farmers, and the need for the careful design of such instruments. Later, we heard from grassland modellers on the outcomes of their model inter-comparison work, including an interesting discussion of uncertainty in grassland modelling. Further presentations brought us the early results of the farm-scale modelling inter-comparison exercise, considered the impacts of management and systemic change at the regional scale and showed how modellers are developing and using models to support and provide advice to farmers and policy makers.

Bilbao poster webpage

Day 2 had the theme of Livestock productivity, and began with a keynote presentation by Martin Scholten (Wageningen UR) who laid out the challenges and opportunities facing the modelling community at the European and international scales, providing an important insight into the work and priorities of ATF. Subsequent presentations focussed on the impacts of environmental change on animal health, productivity and GHG emissions, including incorporating data on these effects into regional scale modelling in Austria. We also heard about the impact of different feeds on GHG emissions, as well as the importance of enteric fermentation in determining the efficiency with which feed is converted to energy by dairy cattle. Throughout the meeting, sixteen posters representing modelling work from within and beyond MACSUR provided further food for thoughts and discussion.

Eight discussion sessions preceded by introductory talks brought delegates together to debate issues of importance for the theme and the knowledge hub in general. Through these valuable sessions we explored issues such as the future of LiveM, the focus and relevance of our plans for the future, developing our links with external initiatives and projects, training, and the use of the MACSUR knowledge hub to attract funding for and to raise the profile of modelling activities. The outputs of these rich discussions will inform the development of the research community, and proved a valuable tool for stimulating thought and ideas for future research and approaches.

Check out the video summary of the meeting here:

TradeM Workshop (24 September 2014)

Scaling in global, regional and farm models

Agriculture, food security and climate change: scaling challenges in agricultural models

 

9:00 - 9:30

registration

9:30 - 9:45

 

opening addresses
Prof. Dr. Jochen Kantelhardt, President of ÖGA

Dr. Kurt Weinberger, President of the International Association of Agricultural Production Insurers (AIAG)
MR DI Elfriede Fuhrmann, Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management

9:45 - 11:30

Chair: Franz Sinabell

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 820 KB

Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
Agriculture, food security and climate change – the global context

Brouwer-Sinabell, 2300 KB

Floor Brouwer
Agriculture, food security and climate change – the European context

Schnid_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014, 2700 KB

Erwin Schmid
Agriculture, food security and climate change – relevance and perspectives for a small open economy exemplified by Austria

 

plenary discussion

11:30

end of stakeholder event

11:30 - 12:30

Chair: Martin Schönhart

Dalgaard_etal_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 2500 KB

Tommy Dalgaard, Chris Kjeldsen, Andreas Meyer-Aurich, Seyda Özkan, Susanne Rolinski, Martin Köchy, Jørgen E. Olesen, Floor Brouwer, Agnes van den Pol-van Dasselaar, Richard Kipling
Farming systems models for regional scale impact assessment in Europe - case studies of N-losses and greenhouse gas emissions

Shailesh-Shresta_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 870 KB

Shailesh Shrestha, Andrew Barnes, Bouda Vosough Ahmadi and Steven Thomson
The response of Scottish dairy farms under increasing financial pressures: an integrated farm level model approach

Seyda_Ozkan_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 240 KB

Seyda Özkan, Helge Bonesmo, Odd Magne Harstad
Greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential of Norwegian dairy sector

12:30 - 13:25

lunch break

13:25 - 15:05

Chair: Erwin Schmid

Lehtonen_Liu_Purola_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 830 KB

Heikki Lehtonen, Xing Liu, Tuomo Purola
The impact and value of climate change adaptations in agriculture at the sector level

Zander_et-al_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 1000 KB

Peter Zander, Benjamin Dequiedt, Vera Eory, John Helming, Tom Kuhlman, Moritz Reckling, Nicole Schlaefke, Kairsky Topp
Cropping of legumes as a potential climate change mitigation strategy? Comparison of three different modelling approaches: CAPRI, MACC and MODAM

Yusuf_Nadi_Karatay_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 1700 KB

Yusuf Nadi Karatay, Andreas Meyer Aurich
Contribution of normalised N-response functions to the assessment of regional comparative cost advantages of GHG mitigation in Brandenburg, Germany

Morawetz_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 740 KB

Ulrich Morawetz, Franz Sinabell
Consistent price scenarios for models of various scales - an exploration of options

Hoveid_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 180 KB

Øyvind Hoveid
Model resolution, scale and statistics

15:05 - 15:20

coffee break

15:20 - 17:10

Chair: Petr Havlik

Corentin_Fontaine_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 4000 KB

Corentin M. Fontaine
Who acts where on a landscape? Developing Human Functional Types for Landscape Dynamics

 

Anne Biewald, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Ilona Otto, Susanne Rolinski, Benjamin Bodirsky, Isabelle Weindl, Alexander Popp
Modeling the impact of climate change on agriculture and poverty at a subnational scale

Milford_Banse_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 500 KB

Anna Birgitte Milford, Martin Banse
Changing meat consumption patterns – Combining cross-country analysis with an applied trade model

 

Ignacio Pérez Domínguez
Greening Agricultural Economic Models: How to move from Commodity Markets to Sustainability in highly aggregated models? The Example of Aglink

Leclere_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 2800 KB

David Leclere
Tracking the spatial and temporal scales relevant to the understanding of climate change induced challenges to agricultural systems

Valdivia_Macsur_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014_final, 3100 KB

Roberto Valdivia
AgMIP's Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems

17:10

end of workshop

17:30

MACSUR internal meeting - Chair: Franz Sinabell

Koechy_Macsur-intern_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014, 3350 KB

Martin Köchy
Report on MACSUR since April and important upcoming events

Brouwer_Macsur-intern_Vienna_Workshop_24-9-2014, 950 KB

Floor Brouwer
Achievements and the way ahead in TradeM

19:00

workshop dinner, Weinhof Zimmermann, Mitterwurzergasse 20, 1190 Wien

Program committee:

  • This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Universität für Bodenkultur Wien
  • This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Universität für Bodenkultur Wien
  • This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung

 


Note: The workshop is supported by The Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management under research contract No. 100875 "FACCE Knowledge Hub - Modelle zur europäischen Landwirtschaft unter Berücksichtigung von Klimawandel und Nahrungsmittelsicherheit".

lebensministerium

Note: The workshop benefits from generous support granted by the Research Council of Norway and Österreichisches Hagelversicherung VVaG.

 

hagelversicherung       Ökosoziales Forum      

iasa        boku       the research coucil of norway       wifo



© 2014 Austrian Institute of Economic Research: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Last update: 2014-09-25.

FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference (1-3 April 2014)

FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference

‘Achievements, Activities, Advancement‘

April 1–3(+4), 2014, University of Sassari, Sardinia, Italy

[Schedule] [Presentations] [Book of Abstracts (PDF)] [Webcasts YT]

The mid-term meeting was held in Sassari, Sardinia, 1-4 April 2014. The meeting was attended by 120 researchers and stakeholders from 16 countries. After a day of looking back on the achievements during the first two years and presenting results to stakeholders, researchers focused on fine-tuning the planning of remaining work for the project till May 2015 and preparations for a follow-up project (MACSUR2) till May 2017. On an excursion, scientists and stakeholders visited farms in the Oristano region, one of the regional case studies of MACSUR. The meeting was a unique opportunity in this pan-European project for discussing in person common issues with and among stakeholders of different regions and how to approach the impact of climate change to producing food in Europe in a world with a growing population.

The food consumed during lunches at the conference originated mostly from the Oristano region. Remaining food in good condition was donated to a charity organisation for needy people.

Excursion: dairy sheep farm "Su Pranu" (Siamanna), dairy cattle farm "Sardo Farm" (Arborea), Arborea Cooperative

A report in La Nueva Sardegna highlighted the conference.

Collaboration across countries and disciplines Advancing modelling for risk assessment of climate change impacts Outlook and remaining challenges Interaction with stakeholders: bridging the gap

Sassari CollageWeb

 

 

 

CropM International Symposium and Workshop (10-12 February 2014)

Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security

10-12 February 2014 at Clarion Hotel Royal Christiana, Oslo, Norway

Final programme              Abstract Book              Presentations

Oslo CropM Symposium group photo

More photos from the event can be found here

Advanced climate change risk assessments for agriculture and food security depend on robust and reliable modelling tools. Among the various empirical-statistical and mathematical simulation techniques, crop models play a central role as they are at the core of any climate impact assessment for the agricultural sector. These and related topics are addressed in FACCE MACSUR and other agricultural research projects and networks. The last international symposium on crop models capabilities, gaps and challenges dates back more than ten years ago and there is an urgent need to facilitate exchange among ongoing initiatives on crop modelling for food security under climate change.

This first CropM International Symposium and Workshop, held at Oslo, 10-12 February 2014 attempts to fill this gap. It has four major goals:

(i)        to discuss the state-of-the-art and future perspectives of crop modelling and approaches for climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector

(ii)       to develop a joint vision and research agenda for crop modelling for the future 

(iii)      to present and discuss CropM highlights and related activities and identify next steps to achieve its contribution to MACSUR goals

(iv)      to foster international collaboration in the interconnected research areas of food security, climate change and agrosystems modelling

The event was organized by CropM /MACSUR in collaboration with the European Society of Agronomy, AgMIP, CCAFS and other international partners. It was sponsored by the Norwegian Research Council.


CONFIRMED KEYNOTES AT THE SYMPOSIUM:

John  R  Porter (Denmark):  State-of-the-art and future perspectives of crop modelling for climate risk assessment

Gerald  C Nelson (USA): Critical Challenges for Integrated Modelling of Climate Change and Agriculture: Addressing the Lamppost Problem

The final programme is available here.

CALL FOR ABSTRACTS

Call for abstracts is now closed. We received plenty of high quality abstracts for both the Symposium and Workshop. Electronic conference proceedings, which include an abstract book, will be published shortly before the event. In addition, there is a plan to prepare a Special Issue of selected papers in Climate Research with Michael Semenov as a Guest Editor. More information on the special issue will follow during and after the symposium and workshop.

Guidelines for oral presentations we will send in January to those selected for presentations.

To still access the abstract submission system (e.g. to check the status of your abstract), click here.

PREPARING YOUR POSTER PRESENTATION

The posters need to be vertical (portrait format) and we recommend to use size A0 (width=841mm height=1189mm, which is width=33.1" height=46.8").

REGISTRATION AND CONFERENCE FEE

Each participant is asked to do his/her own hotel reservations, and pay the cost of room/breakfast. In addition to this, the conference fee is EUR 100 for the full program. It is EUR 70 if you skip the workshop or the symposium. The fee is to cover some of the expenses in relation to the conference, such as lunches, refreshments, meeting facilities and dinner.

Registration is closed.

LOGISTICS

Detailed information on accommodation, travel, local transport, etc. can be found in a pdf of the general information

If you choose for CLARION HOTEL ROYAL CHRISTIANA make your room reservation by phone: +4722334200, or email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and indicate you are participant by using booking code: 456183. Negotiated price, including breakfast: Single room NOK 1080, double room NOK 1280 (this is 134€ and 158€ respectively at exchange rate of 21.10.13) There are still rooms left with the negotiated price.

INQUIRIES REGARDING LOGISTICS:This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

OTHER INQUIRIES:This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

THE SCIENTIFIC STEERING COMMITTEE

Confirmed Committee members include: Reimund Rötter and Frank Ewert (co-chairs), Martin Banse and Richard Tiffin (MACSUR hub coordinators), Senthold Asseng, Ken Boote, Jim W. Jones, Alex Ruane and Peter Thorburn (AgMIP), Andy Challinor (CCAFS), Jacques Wery (ESA), Enli Wang (CSIRO, Australia), Mats Höglind (Bioforsk, Norway), and CropM WP leaders: Marco Bindi, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Jorgen E. Olesen, Mirek Trnka, Sander Janssen, Martin van Ittersum, Mikhail Semenov, Mike Rivington, Daniel Wallach, John R. Porter, Jan Verhagen, Derek Stewart and Pier Paolo Roggero.

 

Regional Pilot Studies Workshop (5-7 June 2013)

Workshop on Regional Pilot Studies, Braunschweig, 5-7 June 2013

The purpose of the Regional Pilot Studies is a simultaneous and interlinked development of a common conceptual framework and actual models and model links. The overall aim of MACSUR is to assist policy makers and actors in the agri-food chain in identifying effective and efficient adaptation and mitigation measures and potential consequence scenarios, e.g. impact on food yield, quality, nutritive value, disease load etc. in perceived hotspots of climate impacts.

Map showing the location of regional pilot studiesAt a workshop in Braunschweig (5 - 7 June 2013) MACSUR participants met to define a concrete question to be answered in regional studies as an example for the application of integrated models. "What would be the different contributions of different European adaptation strategies to global food security until 2050 at different scales (farm to EU) while keeping the GHG targets? What investments are necessary? What are the implications?" The Regional Pilot Studies represent the farming systems in northern, central and southern Europe and will expand existing case studies. For compatibility with international research networks AgMIP and ISIMIP the Regional Pilot Studies will apply the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (especially SSP2 "continuation" but also SSP3 "fragmentation") in conjunction with the Representative CO2 Concentration Pathway of 8.5 W/m2 (most similar to the SRES A2 emission scenario of the IPCC reports).

Till the end of June more details of the Regional Pilot Studies will be set and announced. Stakeholders will be asked to comment on expected model outputs in October. Model results and data will be exchanged among models via 'adapter software' developed in MACSUR that translates different formats. First results will be presented at the MACSUR mid-term meeting in April 2014. 

The report on the workshop is available here (PDF).

Presentations

Information

icon-weblink  Delivering local-­scale climate scenarios for impact assessments in Europe (Mikhail Semenov)

icon-weblink The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) framework (Franziska Piontek)

icon-weblink TradeM – steps for regional pilot studies (Floor Brouwer)

icon-weblink CropM – What climate change and socio-economic data/infos are particularly important? (Reimund Rötter)

icon-weblink LiveM – Contributions to Regional Pilot Studies (Eli Saetnan)

Examples of integrated impact studies

icon-weblink FAMOS (Katharina Helming)

icon-weblink Experiences and insights with metamodels at MTT (Heikki Lehtonen)

 CLIMSAVE (Eric Audsley)

Examples of linked models

icon-weblink CAPRI (Andrea Zimmermann)

icon-weblink Economic assessment of impact of uncertainty due to short-term changes in climate variability for farming systems in the Mediterranean (Gabriele Dono)

icon-weblink Stochastic agricultural production model (Øyvind Hoveid)

Regional Pilot Studies - 'Grand Region' reports

 Central Europe (Franz Sinabell)

 

Summary

 Workshop summary (M. Banse) 

 

The Kickoff Workshop (15-16 October 2012)

Kickoff02

The Kickoff Workshop (2012-10-15–16, Berlin):
steps towards model integration

While the world population is growing and food preferences change, droughts occur simultaneously in different parts of the world more often. The tangible consequences of global climate change cause higher prices for staple food, which hits poor countries especially hard. In contrast, climate change will rather favour the most productive European agricultural regions. This increases Europe’s responsibility for those parts oft he world that are affected strongly by climate change.

At the start of the project more than 140 scientists gathered in Berlin to plan the joint tasks in this FACCE JPI Knowledge Hub. As a first step, FACCE MACSUR will answer the most urgent questions of climate change effects on agricultural production for selected pilot regions. How will changed weather and climate conditions affect the food production in European regions? What are the consequences for the European contributions to food security globally and which feedbacks can be expected for individual farms?

The keynote lecture by Tim Benton (Global Food Security and University of Leeds) and the keynote lecture by Tim Carter (Finnish Environment Institute – SYKE) set the background by describing the need for assessing future impacts on food security and how to deal with the uncertainty associated with data, models, and projections.

In parallel sessions participants discussed the organization of the work, common approaches to answering the questions, potential pilot regions, involvement of stakeholders, and how the results will be presented. A post-hoc survey filled in by 75 attendees showed that the workshop had answered many organizational issues. But since the project has only started, many more issues must be discussed and clarified in the coming months.

Summaries of the sessions can be found in FACCE MACSUR Reports 1.

Below you find some impressions from the workshop.

 Kickoff01 Kickoff02 Kickoff03 
 Kickoff04 Kickoff05   Kickoff06
 Kickoff07  Kickoff08 Kickoff09 
 Kickoff10 Kickoff11  Kickoff12 
 Kickoff13 Kickoff14   Kickoff15
     
 Kickoff16 Kickoff17  Kickoff18 
 Kickoff19 Kickoff20  Kickoff21