XC6 - Regional case studies (organizer: Pier Paolo Roggero)
with XC1 (Model comparison and improvement - Marco Bindi) and XC14 (Impacts on ecosystem services and rural development - Katharina Helming) Background description of XC6.
Tuesday, 28 October
08:30 - 08:45 Opening of the workshop, agenda (PP Roggero)
08:45 - 09:45 Overview of possible contribution of XC1 (Model comparison and improvement) to XC6 Regional Case Studies and possible outcomes. Mapping model output indicators of ecosystem services in Regional case studies OUTPUT: maps models x ESS indicators (G. Bellocchi, M. Bindi)
09:45 - 10:00 Stakeholder involvement in policy cycle (M. Köchy)
[Coffee 10:15 – 10:30]
10:00 - 11:00 Group discussion (or plenary, depending on no. of participants): illustration of previous experiences, identification of major challenges, actions and avenues for research; preliminary discussion on quality criteria requirements for case studies to be further discussed on afternoon and Wednesday sessions. (G. Bellocchi)
11:00 – 11:30 Design of process for developing one or more paper(s).
14:15 – 15:30 • Intro and negotiation of the proposed session agenda (PP Roggero)
• Showing Regional Case studies (10’ each)
15:30 – 15:45 Learning from non-MACSUR experiences: “Sustainable Land Management: a research programme based on 12 Regional Projects in 4 Continents” (www.sustainable-landmanagement.net Module A) (A. Paulsch)
15:45 – 16:00 Coffee
16:00 – 16:45 Identifying relevant research questions across MACSUR case studies - interactive (group?) session - Discussion also on the criteria for cross case analyses
16:45 – 17:15 Research questions and cross case analyses: report of group discussion and plenary discussion
17:15 – 17:45 Mapping towards actions: participants will be invited to co-design a pathway towards XC6 deliverables (incl. papers). (PP Roggero)
Wednesday, 28 October
08:30 – 08:45 • Intro and negotiation of the proposed session agenda (K. Helming)
• Impact on ecosystem services and rural development in Regional Case Studies
• Introduction: aims and scope of XC14, draft analytical framework, CICES approach
08:45 – 09:00 Example of contribution to ecosystem service assessment from MACSUR models (M. Schönhart)
09:00 – 09:45 Discussion: requirements for analytical framework; opportunities and challenges for implementing the approach; overview of possible contributions from case studies; examples (K. Helming)
09:45 – 10:00 Roadmap, timeline and task distribution (K. Helming)
10:15 – 10:45 Stakeholder engagement policy (M. Köchy)
- At case study scale
- Building up relationships with JPI FACCE StAB
10:45 – 11:30 • Deliberating on regional case study quality requirements and XC6
• Agenda XC6.1-2-3
(PP Roggero, K. Mittenzwei)
11:30 – 12:00 Conclusions, reporting to Hub, timeline for XC6 (PP Roggero)
XC7 - Impact assessment for Europe (organizer: Andrea Zimmermann)
14:15 - 14:20 Introduction to XC7 (Andrea Zimmermann; 5 min)
14:20 - 14:40 Overview of XC7.1, XC7.4 and socioeconomic and policy scenarios from the XC16 workshop (Andrea Zimmermann)
14:40 - 15:00 Overview of XC7.2 and crop modeling scenarios (Frank Ewert)
15:00 - 15:20 Overview of XC7.3 and grassland modeling scenarios (Susanne Rolinski)
15:20 - 15:45 Discussion: Common protocol for data exchange between XC7.2/7.3/7.4 and discussion (Andrea Zimmermann, all)
16:15 - 16:35 Overview of XC7.5 and data needs (Heikki Lehtonen)
16:35 - 16:55 Overview of XC7.6 and data needs (Katharina Helming)
16:55 - 17:10 Discussion: Data exchange between XC7.5, XC7.6 and other (all)
17:10 - 17:15 Close
Background description of the cross cutting activity
XC8 - Extreme climatic events (organizer: Richard Tiffin)
Background description of the cross cutting activity
In this workshop we will select three plausible extreme event scenarios. We will identify the current knowledge barriers to understanding the impacts of these events on agrifood systems, to inform where modelling is required to improve our understanding. Between this workshop and a follow-up workshop in December, participants will attempt to address the identified knowledge gaps, and develop narrative descriptions of impacts of these extreme events. We aim to produce a paper outlining our selected scenarios, a pathway to quantifying the impacts of extreme events on agrifood systems, and narrative descriptions of the three selected scenarios. Timing is limited in Braunschweig, a rough draft of the paper will be prepared prior to the workshop to help establish an efficient workshop structure. A preliminary program is included below:
Wednesday PM (first part in lecture hall, jointly with TradeM):
14:20-14:50 Talks: Biological responses to extreme events – Crops & Livestock; Modelling crop and economic responses to extreme events; Outputs from the Global Food Security program.
15:50:16:05 Coffee break/networking
16:05-17:45 Group work: Discussions to identify plausible extreme event scenarios, e.g. heat stress during crop flowering, soya production shock in USA and Brazil. Voting to establish top three most interesting scenarios. Identify knowledge gaps or questions that arise from selected scenarios, e.g. how will primary production be affected by an extreme event? How might producers respond to reduced production?
08:30-10:00 Group work: Discussion to identify how modelling can be used to address the knowledge gaps or questions that arise from selected scenarios. Which gaps/questions can different models address?
10:00-10:30 Coffee break/networking
10:30-12:00 Group work: Continuation of what gaps/questions can different models address? Next steps - assigning workers to actions to be completed between this workshop and a follow-up workshop in December.
XC11 - Animal feed story (organizer: Barbara Amon)
Background description of the cross cutting activity
- Introduction (Barbara Amon) (15 min, 8:30-8:45)
- introduction of XC activity and first task 11.1 (focus on studies relevant for animal feed story and development of region specific livestock diets)
- definition of the workshop goal: structuring review / position paper
- Topics of interest (Andre Bannink); short introduction addressing the topics (10 min each à one hour, 8:45-10:00)
- local, novel protein sources (as alternative to imported protein)
- types of roughage as feed source
- quality and conservation of roughages
- consequence of intensity of farm management and related impact of CC
- changes in regional specific diets (i.e. protein content, type of roughage, type of conservation/harvest, protein quality )
- Coffee Break (10:00-10:30)
- Potential linkages with other MACSUR task (30 min, 10:30-11:00)
- listing aspects to be represented / actions to be taken when modelling the consequences for changes in region specific diets
- first identification of actions needed to make livestock models suit for purpose
- Formulation of next steps and time table (one hour, 11:00-12:00)
- actions to be taken
- actions by whom
- time table
XC16 - Overall scenario development (organizer: Anne Biewald)
In this workshop we will discuss how far we have come with developing agriculturally specific SSPs (also called Representative Agricultural Pathways or RAPs), how we can progress with this development and how the scenarios can be quantified and implemented into the regional models developed in the XC6 (regional case studies). We will discuss the scenario development across the different Ms, as especially the agricultural scenarios need to be reflected in different communities (crop, livestock, economic).
Tuesday, 27 October
In the first half of the workshop we will start with key-note speakers from different Themes:
14:15 - 17:45
- Dr. Anne Biewald (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research), coordinator of the XCA "Overall scenario development": "An introduction to Europe specific SSPs, developed in the FP7 project IMPRESSIONS"
- Dr. Barbara Ammon (Leibniz Institut für Agrartechnik, Potsdam-Bornim), LiveM:"GHG emission sources in livestock husbandry and mitigation options"
- Prof. Frank Ewert (University of Bonn), co-leader of CropM:"Why is it not sufficient to implement agricultural management into economic models only"
- Prof. Hermann Lotze-Campen (Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research), co-leader of the Global Economics Team in AgMIP, TradeM: "The development and quantification of RAPs in AgMIP, first lessons learned"
- Prof. John Antle (Oregon State University), Leader of the Regional Economics Team in AgMIP: "RAPs, Scenarios and Global-Regional Model Linkages: Lessons from AgMIP Studies and Plans for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments"
- Dr. Andrea Zimmermann (University of Bonn), leader of the XCA "Impact Assessment for Europe", TradeM: "RAPs and agricultural policy scenarios in CAPRI"
- Prof. Heikki Lehtonen (Natural Ressource Institute Finland), TradeM: "Implementing RAPs in the regional case study Finland"
Wednesday, 28 October
In the second half of the workshop we will gather in groups and try to define in structured discussions which aspects of the RAPs should be considered and how they can be translated into concrete scenario quantifications.
9.00-10.00 Presentation of different indicators:
-Adaptation measures in agriculture
-Greening in the CAP
-Rural development policies, Pillar II in the CAP
-EU-Water Framework Directive
Discussion of further indicators and quantification of the indicators for the different RAPs
10.30-12.00 Discussion on the translation of the indicators to model parametersDefining necessary input for the regional pilot studies from CAPRI and other sources
Background description of the cross cutting activity
C1.5 – Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models (organizer: Christian Kersebaum)
Tuesday 9:00 - 12:00 Mini workshop (Savary)
C1 & C2 - CropM Model improvement and Data analysis (organizer: Christian Kersebaum)
14:15 - 14:35 Introduction and structure of WP1 and WP2 (Kersebaum/Olesen)
14:35 - 15:10 C1.4: Extend crop model assessments to more cropping systems : Work plan, participants, available data, time line (Bindi)
15:10 - 15:45 C2.3: Quantify data gaps for crop modelling: work plan, participants, time line (Olesen)
16:15 - 18:00 C2.5: Empirical analyses of crop responses to climatic variation: work plan, participants, time line (Olesen)
16:15 - 18:00 C1.2: Implementation of extreme events in crop models: work plan, participants, time line (Trnka)
8:00 - 10:00 C1.5 Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models: participants, available models and data requirements, potential links to crop models (Savary)
10:30 - 11:15 C1.5: Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models: work plan, available data, time line (Savary)
11:15 - 12:00 C2.4 Observed adaptation options and their efficacy: work plan, participants, time line (Savary)
14:15 - 15:00 C2.2 Climate change scenarios: work plan, participants, time line (Semenov)
15:00 - 15:45 C1.3 Long term effects of management and cropping systems on crop production and ecosystem services: work plan, participants, available data and treatments, time line (Olesen)
16:15 - 17:00 C1.1 Model response to variable site conditions on crop production and ecosystem services: work plan, participants, available data, time line (Kersebaum)
17:00 - 18:00 C2.1: Data compilation, management and presentation: concept, contributers, rules, data rquirements and available data, time line (Janssen)
C3 - CropM Methods of scaling and model linking (organizer: Frank Ewert)
14:15 – 14:25 Welcome and introduction (Ewert)
14:25 – 14:35 Overview and status of activities in C3 (Hoffmann)
14:35 – 14:50 Updates and results from scaling of management rules (phase 3), (Hoffmann)
14:50 – 15:10 Discussion of results from scaling of management rules (phase 3), (All)
15:10 – 15:25 Data and simulation results from Tuscany (Hoffmann)
15:25 – 15:45 Discussion of Tuscany results, (All)
15:45 – 16:15 Coffee break
16:15 – 18:00 Clarification / discussion of the contributions of participants to phase 3 (missing simulations, models, data, …), (All)
08:30 – 10:00 Clarification of next steps of scaling exercise (All)
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee break
10:30 – 12:00 Procedural planning, e.g. papers, time plan, division of responsibilities, etc. (All)
12:00 – 13:00 Lunch
PDF version of program
C4 - CropM Uncertainty and Risk analysis (organizer: Reimund Rötter)
08:30 - 08:40 Welcome and overview on the sessions (Reimund & Daniel)
08:40 - 08:45 Introduction to SESSION 1 “Impact Response Surface Analyses” (chair: RP Rötter, Luke)
08:45 - 09:10 Inter-model variability in wheat yield responses to changes in climate in the IRS1 model experiment (20+5 min) (S Fronzek, SYKE)
09:10 - 09:30 Discussion on next activities/more outputs from IRS1 and access to model results
09:30 - 09:55 Current status of IRS2 study (M Ruiz-Ramos UPM/Spain & R Ferrise UFL/Italy)
09:55 - 10:15 Break/Refreshments
10:15 - 10:35 Progress report on model - aided barley cultivar design (BCD)/ideotyping (F Tao/Luke)
10:35 - 12:00 Break-outs for informal Working Group meetings (e.g. IRS1; IRS2; BCD)
12:00 - 13:30 Lunch break
13:30 - 14:15 Opportunity to participate in plenary (on stakeholders) OR continue in break-out group
14:15 - 14:20 Introduction to SESSION 2 “Framework for evaluating uncertainty & using ensembles of models) (chair: D Wallach, INRA)
14:20 - 14:40 A framework for evaluating uncertainty in crop model predictions (D Wallach, INRA)
14:40 - 15:30 Plenary or group discussion on related activities in MACSUR (CropM & other themes)
15:30 - 15:45 Break
15:45 - 16:05 Using ensembles of models –new lessons for CropM (D Wallach et al.)
16:05 - 16:30 Plenary or group discussion on related acivities in MACSUR (CropM & other themes)
16:30 - 16:45 Wrap-up and close (Daniel & Reimund)
CropM WP leaders meeting (Thursday, over lunch)
L1.3 and L1.4 - LiveM Methods workshop (organizer: Richard Kipling)
The overall objective of Task L1.3 is to bring together expertise from grassland and farm scale modelling communities and to work together towards common goals in farm scale modelling. The workshop will work toward a state of art paper on the characterization of grasslands in farm scale modelling and a work-plan for task activities up to 2017.
The workshop aims are to:
- Explore how grasslands are represented in farm scale modelling
- Discuss strength and weaknesses of current approaches
- Suggest how the representation of grasslands can be improved
- Develop a sate-of-art paper on the representation of grasslands in farm-scale modelling
- Share and learn about possible solutions drawing on experience from MACSUR 1
- Form plans for further work in MACSUR and related projects
By bringing together expertise from different disciplines including grassland, livestock and farm scale modellers and by drawing on the extensive experience gained from inter and intra-disciplinary grassland and farm scale modelling activities in MACSUR 1, we expect a very interesting workshop.
The activities of L 1.3 and L 1.4 are complementary and we hope that many of you can attend the whole joint-workshop.
L1.4: Reusing and linking models in livestock farming (Nick Hutchings)
The overall objective of Task L1.4 is to encourage the reuse of modelling concepts and modelling code related to modelling production, GHG emissions and N losses at the farm-scale. The task itself is in two parts. The first part aims to establish an overview (and hopefully a consensus) of the core functions of individual farm components (livestock, manure management etc) and the flow of information needed between these components if they are to operate at the farm scale. This requires a scientific discussion to which a broad range of LiveM participant may wish to contribute and which will be the focus of the L1.4 session in Braunschweig. The second part of the task will be undertaken next year and the details have not yet been finalised. We will focus on the barriers to using model linkers as a method of using model code. This could include a survey of modellers and the test of a number model linkers. This work will be of a more technical nature and therefore relevant for a model builders and IT specialists.
Both parts of L1.4 are intended to result in a scientific paper. The time available to us in Braunschweig is limited, so to focus the discussions, I will coordinate the production of a rough draft prior to us meeting. This will include a brief description of how existing farm models deal with the following components and their interactions.
The physical components potentially present on a ruminant livestock farm are:
- Livestock (usually further divided according to age and production focus)
- Fields (usually further divided further into grassland and arable)
- Access roads, holding yards and feedlots/corrals
- Livestock housing
- Manure storage
- Silage storage
Tactical management (timescale 0.5 to 1.5 years).
- animal husbandry (e.g. replacement rate, length of lactation, expected feed ration and feed requirements)
- grassland and crop rotation planning (e.g. choice of crops, varieties and crop areas, initial designation of grazing and conservation areas, initial manure allocations)
Operational management (timescale <1 day to 0.5 years).
- animal husbandry (e.g. culling, mating, drying off, balancing feed requirement and supply)
- grassland and crop management (e.g. fertilisation and manuring, pesticide spraying, cutting/grazing/silage or haymaking/harvesting)
Since farm-scale modelling is a worldwide activity, I have offered researchers outside Europe the opportunity to make a contribution to the discussion and the resulting paper.
Timing in Braunschweig
There is an overlap between the whole-farm scope of L1.4 and L1.3 which focusses on pasture/animal interactions. After discussions with Mats Høglind, the plan is to allocate most of Thursday 29th to L1.4, before switching to L1.3 in the last period of the afternoon. That way, we ensure that we deal with all farm components and L1.4 can function as an introduction to the more detailed discussions concerning the pasture/animal interactions in the L1.3. The plan is as follows:
Thursday 29 Oct
08:30 – 10:00 Animal housing, manure storage, silage storage
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee
10:30 – 12:00 Fields and livestock
14:15 – 15:15 Farm management
15:15 – 15:45 Summing up and time plan for paper
15:45 – 16:15 Coffee
16:15 – 17:45 Representation of grasslands in farm scale modelling – overview of current approaches
Friday, 30 October
08:30 – 10:00 What do livestock models require from grassland models in farm scale modelling of production, GHG emissions and N leaching, and how can this be satisfied?
10:00 – 10:30 Coffee
10:30 – 12:00 What do grassland models require from livestock models in farm scale modelling of production, GHG emissions and N leaching, and how can this be satisfied?
13:00 – 14:00 Single issues: modelling vegetative and reproductive growth, species mixtures, uneven distribution of excretal returns, herbage rejection, disease transmission, ...
14:00 – 15:00 Summing up and time plan for paper and work plan
15:00 – 15:30 Coffee
L2.3 - LiveM Modelling adaptation to climate change (organizer: Richard Kipling, task leader: Kairsty Topp)
The workshop will work towards papers on the topic areas covered, and set the work-plan for task activities up to 2017. The workshop aims are to:
- Explore current modelling approaches to adaptation
- Share and learn about possible solutions
- Develop a paper with others on modelling adaptation in livestock systems
- Form plans for further work in MACSUR
As part of the workshop, we would like to invite you to give a 2 minute presentation or ‘pitch’ that covers the following issues:
- What is the most important issue that you are currently facing in modelling adaptation to climate change?
- What additional information/data do you need to advance your modelling work?
- What methodological issues do you face?
- Who are the users of your results and the information you provide?
If you cannot attend the workshop, you are welcome to record a presentation and send it to me prior to the event, and we will ensure that the information contained is used as part of the workshop. The objective of the presentations is to inform the discussions, and the development of the paper on the state of modelling adaptation in livestock systems. Your inputs will also inform the subsequent work-plan. If you would like to attend this workshop, send a presentation, or to know more about it, please get in touch with me (if you have not done so already) and register before the 30 Sept. To help us organise this event effectively, as well as registering on the MACSUR website, please contact us directly before 23 September 2015 to let us know if you want to be involved.
TradeM (organizers: Floor Brouwer, Franz Sinabell)
The workshop will be split in two parts. In the first part invited papers will be presented in order to show the progress of research during the last six months since the meeting in Reading. The second part of the workshop will be used as a platform to organize the work for the coming two years and to inform TradeM researchers about the activities in cross-cutting activities. The program will include reports from workpackage and task leaders. Other elements the development of a publication plan and further work on a set of coherent assumptions about regional case studies.
Wednesday, 28 Oct.
The first part of the workshop will be combined with XC8.
XC8 (Variability and Extreme Climate Events) will select three plausible extreme event scenarios, and identify the current knowledge barriers to understanding the impacts of these events on agrifood systems, to inform where modelling is required to improve our understanding. Between this workshop and a follow-up workshop in December, participants will attempt to address the identified knowledge gaps, and develop narrative descriptions of impacts of these extreme events. We aim to produce a paper outlining our selected scenarios, a pathway to quantifying the impacts of extreme events on agrifood systems, and narrative descriptions of the three selected scenarios.
14.15: Introduction (Richard Tiffin)
14.20: Biological responses to extreme events – Crops & Livestock (Jacob Bishop)
14.40: Modelling crop responses to extreme events – Gianni Bellocchi
15.00: Combining crop and economic responses – A model-based economic assessment of future climate variability impacts on global agricultural markets (Hermann Lotze-Campen)
15.40: The Global Food Security program – an overview of the process of identifying scenarios and developing responses to them and discussion of main outputs (Richard Tiffin)
16.00: Closure of the presentations in XC8, to be followed after the break for a discussion of next steps.
16.00: Break for coffee/tea
Session 2 – Policy support in MACSUR, Chair: Franz Sinabell
16:15 - 18:15 Short presentations (10 minutes each), followed by a discussion on the findings of MACSUR1 supporting policy.
- Andrea Zimmermann – Policy scenarios and the European Impact Assessments in MACSUR (plan of work)
- Klaus Mittenzwei – Climate change and the policy agenda in Norway
- Heikki Lehtonen – Finnish farmers coping with climate change
- Gabriele Dono – Room for improving the performance of Italian farming in adapting to climate change
- Martin Schönhart – Climate change and the policy agenda in Austria
- Reimund Rötter/Floor Brouwer – Note on the findings in MACSUR 1
18.15 Closure of Session 2
Thursday morning, 29 Oct: 9.00 – 12.00
9.00 Model comparison and model improvements
- Anna Milford – Update on consumer behaviour in MACSUR
- Thomas Berger – Agent-based modelling of climate adaptation and mitigation options
- Andrea Zimmermann – How to explain yield gaps in Europe?
10.15 Current state of RAPs and opportunities for regional modelling; presentation of the concept, Franz Sinabell and Martin Schönhart to introduce
11.30 – 12.00 Next steps in TradeM
XC leaders (organized by Martin Banse)
Coordination of XC activities – Wednesday, over lunch
Managers (organized by Richard Kipling)
Exchange of experiences on managing large research networks like MACSUR – Wednesday, over dinner (back to where it was!)