Here you can find documentation on all major MACSUR events.
MACSUR Science Conference 2017 (2017-05-22 to 2017-05-24)
The knowledge hub MACSUR aims at improving modelling methodologies and sound case study applications leading to improved assessments of climate change on European agriculture. The conference from 22-24 May in Berlin was a summary of achievements in MACSUR phase 2 and preparations for the potential third phase. People from 21 countries, including S-Korea, USA, Iran, and India attended the meeting to see the 64 oral presentations and 24 posters addressing issues related to assessing and modelling of agriculture and food security under climate change.
MACSUR made significant progress in the linking of models and scientific communities across individual disciplines for contributions to regional and European assessments. As a result of MACSUR activities models could be compared and then improved, crop rotations have been included in modelling, and methods have been refined for upscaling model results. Evaluating and comparing models for assessments at farm-scale and including livestock has been a major step forward for providing the basis for regional and European-scale assessments. At the aggregated European level, adaptation and mitigation, economy and environment, policy and consumer interests meet, so that modelling becomes very complex.
Several important conclusions emerged: Improving animal health and welfare are important adaptation and mitigation strategies; crop, livestock, farm and socio-economic models should be able to respond to adaptation measures and provide links to climate and land use change; linking models across scales, interaction with stakeholders, and cross-sectoral learning are vital for supporting decisions at policy level. With improved modelling of crops and livestock, socio-economic models developed and applied in MACSUR, the Knowledge Hub now provides the links to global and regional economies and links to the internationally agreed shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. The key message from the assessments is that future legislative frameworks for mitigation, adaptation and resource management as well as consumer behaviour are crucial for how well regional and European agriculture can deal with climate change.
Research in MACSUR has been documented in more than 200 peer-reviewed publications including significant strategy papers, several special issues of journals, numerous presentations, and a great number of interactions with policymakers and stakeholders along the agro-food chain.
For the immanent period between phase 2 and a potential phase 3 all MACSUR »Themes« intend to maintain networking activities and contribute to the development of a joint proposal for assessing impacts of climate change on agriculture across regions in Europe.
Conference schedule (overview)
There will be 64 oral presentations and 24 posters addressing issues related to modelling of agriculture and food security under climate change:
| Monday, 22 May | Tuesday, 23 May | Wednesday, 24 May | |||||||||
| morning |
09:00-12:00 Pre-conference meetings
|
09:00-10:30 Plenaries CropM overview 11:00-12:40 Presentations (4 parallel sessions) |
09:00-10:20 Keynote lecture 10:50-12:30 Presentations |
||||||||
| lunch time | 12:00-13:15 Registration, Poster setup |
12:40-13:50 Lunch Break |
12:30-13:50 Lunch Break | ||||||||
| afternoon |
13:15 Opening: Dr. Hartmut Stalb, German Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL), Chair of the FACCE Governing Board 13:30-14:50 Presentations 15:20-17:30 Presentations |
13:50-15:30 Theme meetings
16:00 - 17:30 Poster session
|
(Schedule preliminary) 13:50 Keynote: Tania Runge Plenary: summaries of Theme meetings on Tuesday (10' each) MACSUR2++ strategy and actions: presentations and discussions FET Flagship 17:00 End |
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Schedule of presentations — Delegate package (maps, abstracts, rooms)
Keynote speakers
Prof. Dr. Frank Ewert, Scientific Director of Leibniz Center for Agricultural Landscape Research and Chair of Crop Science at University of Bonn
Dr. Tania Runge, former chair of the FACCE JPI Stakeholder Advisory Board
Martijn Buijsse, Development Director of the European Initiative for Sustainable Development in Agriculture
Venue
Adlershof con.vent (Rudower Chaussee 17, 12489 Berlin)The closest airport is Berlin Schönefeld (SFX). You need a short-trip (Kurzstrecke, 1.70 €) ticket to Adlershof (S) or a ticket for zones BC (3.00 €) to travel from SFX to Adlershof (Walther-Nernst-Str). Please consult the fare guide. Tickets are sold from automats in the train station.
Significant funding was provided by the Research Council of Norway.
Organising committee:
Martin Banse, Floor Brouwer, Katharina Brüser, Nándor Fodor, Christine Foyer, Richard Kipling, Martin Köchy, Kathryn Nicklin, Daniel Sandars, Nigel Scollan, Franz Sinabell, Kairsty Topp.
Contact: Nándor Fodor, Martin Köchy
» Flyer for download
Italian stakeholder meeting in Rome (2017-1212 to 2017-12-13)
The Italian partnership of MACSUR organized a stakeholder meeting at the Italian Ministry of Agriculture in Rome on Agriculture and Climate change, “Challenges and Opportunities”: www.agriclimchange.com (in Italian).
FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers 2017 (2017-05-11)
Climate change, adaptation and mitigation in agriculture across Europe
A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers
11 May 2017
Brussels, Rue Montoyer 61
on the premises of the Representation of the State of Lower Saxony to the European Union
Following the workshop in 2016, this year's workshop will address the diversity of climate change impacts on agriculture across Europe and future research challenges.
Participation in the workshop is free.
| 12:30 | Registration/Lunch |
| Presentations and Discussion | |
| 13:30 | Presentation of the EEA Report »Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in Europe 2016« — Hans-Martin Füssel, EEA |
| Agriculture and climate change – Strategic planning and R&D in a global fertilizer company — Frank Brentrup, Yara International | |
| MACSUR case studies across Europe: opportunities and challenges for farming systems — Pier Paolo Roggero, Univ. Sassari | |
| Visions for MACSUR Phase 3 (2017-2020) — Floor Brouwer, Wageningen UR (LEI); Martin Banse, Thünen Institute | |
| 15:00 | Coffee, Tea |
| 15:30 |
Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe — Introduction/Workshop/Discussion; Franz Sinabell, WIFO & Martin Schönhart, BOKU |
| Presentation of group results | |
| 16:55 | Conclusions |
| 17:00 | End |
Funding and in-kind support were provided by The State of Lower Saxony, Thünen Institute, Norwegian Research Council, and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
Second Workshop on Animal Health and Climate Change (2016-10-14)
Second Workshop on Animal Health and Climate Change
The second workshop of the MACSUR Tasks 2.1 and 2.2 on animal health and climate change will be held in Ås, Norway on the 14th October 2016.
The aim of the workshop is to bring together researchers working on modelling animal health and climate change impacts to discuss the current work and present the modelling efforts on the impacts of climate change on animal health and the impacts of animal health on greenhouse gas emissions. Two writing sessions are dedicated to work on proposals which will be progressed into papers. A discussion session at the workshop will focus on funding opportunities for the group.
A survey has been prepared to gather an overview of the capabilities of the current models on animal health and climate change. If you are interested to join the workshop and/or the future activities of these tasks, please fill in the attached survey and send it to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. by 30th of September 2016.
Please also find attached the draft agenda of the workshop. Registration deadline for the workshop is 7th October 2016.
Results of our research community have recently been published in Environmental Research, highlighting the challenges in modelling animal health and pathogens in the context of climate change. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393511630319X
Please see below a draft agenda and plans for the workshop and some practical details regarding accommodation and transport. Coffee and lunch are provided free of charge through the funding allocated to the organization of workshops and conferences in MACSUR2 by the Norwegian Research Council. However, you need to pay for your own travel and accommodation.
Venue
The venue is located in NMBU’s Ås campus, 30 km south of Oslo.
Details
TradeM International Workshop 2016 (2016-10-09 to 2016-10-12)
Tromsø – Trondheim, Norway
on board of the Hurtigruten Coastal Express
9-12 October 2016
Aims and objective
It is well established that Europe will face considerable regional differences with regard to climate change. This requires the regional dimension of climate change for a spatially diverse European agriculture to be better understood. Studies of policies that enhance resilience in the food sector and that formulate policy recommendations have to take into account the spatial nature of agriculture and the regional dimension of climate change. The workshop will focus on applications and methodological advancements.
The event has three major goals:
(i) to discuss adaptation and mitigation options of agricultural systems under climate change
(ii) to study and assess regional approaches implementing adaptation and mitigation options in agriculture
(iii) to advance policy implications of climate change for agriculture and food security
Keynote speakers
| Peter Wehrheim | Head of Unit “Land Use and Finance for Innovation”, European Commission, DG Climate Action |
| Alan Mathews | Prof. em. Trinity College, Dublin |
| Eric Nævdal | Senior Research Fellow, Frisch Centre at the University of Oslo |
|
Ignacio Perez Dominguez |
Senior Researcher, Institute for Prospective Technical Studies (IPTS), JRC Seville |
Results
Twenty-five people attended. The workshop started with an introduction to Arctic ecology and regional development. Four keynote speakers from policy, science and JRC gave a great mixture of high quality input into the workshop. It fuelled the discussions and was well appreciated by the participants. Fifteen very interesting and engaging presentations throughout the workshop showed that CC mitigation is a very important research undertaking, that LULUCF in crop and animal production play an important role, and that the role of agriculture in the CC policy debate is high on the agenda.
Presentations of the workshop were published in FACCE MACSUR Reports, volume 9 and are now archived in PUBLISSO.
Acknowledgements
The workshop was sponsored by:
XC workshop (2016-10-13)
Aims of the workshop
- highlight progress in the cross-cutting activities
- facilitate collaboration across Themes for achieving the planned project deliverables
- contributions to a paper on Research gaps in modelling European agriculture with climate change for food security.
Agenda
- 08:30 Registration
- 08:45 Welcome
- 08:50 Presentations of intermediate results and plans by each cross-cutting activity (member log-in required)
- XC1 - Model comparison and improvement (Gianni Bellocchi)
- XC2 - Scaling (Claas Nendel)
- XC3 - Uncertainty and risk assessment
- XC4 - Capacity builing
- XC5 - Interaction with stakeholders (Martin Köchy, Richard Kipling)
- XC6 - Regional case studies (Pier Paolo Roggero)
- XC7 - Impact assessment (Andrea Zimmermann)
- XC8 - Impacts of extreme events (Jake Bishop)
- XC9 - Yield gaps (Martin Köchy for René Schils)
- XC10- New technologies
- XC11- Feed quality, utilisation, protein availability (André Bannink)
- XC12- Farm-scale risk assessment
- XC13- Impacts of consumer behaviour (Klaus Mittenzwei for Anna Milford)
- XC14- Impacts on ecosystem services and rural development (Katharina Helming)
- XC15- GHG mitigation
- XC16- Scenario development (Franz Sinabell and Hermann Lotze-Campen)
- 12:20 Lunch
- 14:00 Potential collaborations in H2020-2017 or COST actions
- 14:30 XC contributions to MACSUR's research gap report
- CC impact scenarios at farm level
- direct/indirect CC impacts, data needs and availability, model selection, uncertainty
- defining strengths of impacts
- lead persons for text contributions, deadlines, formats
- CC impact scenarios at farm level
- 14:45 Organisation of XC activities in MACSUR 3 (contingent on emerging plans)
- 16:15 Break – Opportunity for networking
- 17:00 End
Venue
|
The hotel is within hiking distance (3.5 km) of Oslo Gardermoen Airport. Exit the airport towards Radisson Hotel, keep right and follow Edvard Griegs vegen (or follow signs to P4, there's a free bus shuttle to P4 that saves you 2 km). You can also take shuttle bus S55 (70 NOK, every 20 minutes) from the arrival level of the airport. Mind the address if you intend to stay in a different place. This is NOT Scandic Gardermoen, Jessheimvegen! |
LocationNorway
Phone: +47 23 15 59 00
Fax: +47 23 15 59 11
E-mail:
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
|
Dates
Registration deadline: 25 September (registration after the deadline means you might be without dinner).
The workshop is right after the TradeM workshop. You could take flight SK355 from Trondheim (11:25) to Oslo (12:20).
Pre-workshop dinner: 12 October 2016, 19:00
Workshop: 13 October 2016, 9:00 - 17:00.
Participation is free thanks to the generous support of the Research Council of Norway.
LiveM 2016 Conference
The conference was jointly hosted by PIK and ATB-Potsdam to:
- Present advances in the modelling of grassland-livestock production systems in the context of future food security and sustainable production under climate change
- Highlight the future challenges and research priorities for livestock and grassland modelling
- Bring together modellers across nations and disciplines to share ideas, spread best practice and develop new collaborations as part of an integrated research community
Many thanks to Susanne Rolinski and the organising teams at PIK and ATB Potsdam for hosting a successful and stimulating conference in June. Around 50 delegates attended the meeting, and were treated to a range of presentations on themes including Efficiency of livestock production in the context of climate change, Climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation, modelling with stakeholders, and Model comparison, linkages and challenges. The conference was held in the cupola of an old observatory at the heart of the PIK campus, providing an unusual and memorable backdrop to discussions. We present a number of resources related to the meeting:
Check out the conference proceedings, now published in Advances in Animal Biosciences
PDFs of many of the presentations are also available to view in FACCE MACSUR Reports 8 (and archived in PUBLISSO)
The conference was supported by direct and in-kind funding by Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research and the Research Council of Norway.
FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers (2016-05-24)
Supporting policies for climate change adaptation and mitigation for European agriculture
A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers
24 May 2016
Brussels, Rue Montoyer 61
on the premises of the Representation of the State of Lower Saxony to the European Union
The 2016 MACSUR workshop for policymakers focused on impacts of climate change on agriculture in several regions across Europe and how local adaptation measures might conflict with EU and national policies. MACSUR case studies indicated that such conflicts exist or will become likely in the areas of water use, fertilisation (nitrate directive), and land ownership. Presentations by representatives of the European food and beverage industry, the European landowners, and the Commission showed agreement on future challenges for food production: climate change, growing global population, increasing average age in industrialized countries. For achieving global food security in 30 years it will become necessary to find solutions that are economically sound, satisfying for farmers and consumers, and gentle to environment and climate.
Among the solutions, some of which are already explored in European regions, are: improved agricultural technologies so that more and better food can be produced with less amount of resources; production of feedstuff only on agricultural land not suited for food production; avoidance of food loss (during production, processing, and post-consumer); regulations at national and EU level that consider regional climate and environment.
Concrete plans call for detailed calculations by models, which, however, cannot be produced at short notice because of the many links and feedbacks among climate, environment, trade, agriculture, society, and nature that must be specified. Therefore, even closer and more regular harmonization of scenarios, options, and plans among decisionmakers, researchers, food industry, farmers, and consumers are necessary for gradually finding sustainable solutions.
A near-term research plan (AgEurope50) and a long-term grand European research initiative (EU Flagship) on 'climate change impacts along the agro-food chain' was proposed by MACSUR that could contribute significantly to producing solutions. This initiative must be supported by enough stakeholders (by rating the idea on a scale of one to five stars - http://macsur.eu/flagship) in order to keep it on the top of the list.
| 12:30 | Registration/Lunch |
| Part 1: | Updates from the FACCE MACSUR project |
| 13:30 | Introduction to FACCE JPI and MACSUR — Jurgita Lekaviciute, INRA, France; Floor Brouwer, Wageningen UR, the Netherlands |
| 13:40 | How do European policies (CAP, Nitrate Directive, Water Framework, etc.) contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation in MACSUR case study regions? — Heikki Lehtonen, Luke (Natural Resources Institute), Finland |
| 14:10 | The mitigation potential in European agriculture — Nigel Scollan, Aberystwyth University, UK |
| 14:40 | Discussion |
| 15:00 | Coffee, Tea |
| Part 2: |
Actions supporting adaptation to and mitigation of climate change in agriculture |
| 15:00 | Registration |
| 15:30 |
|
| 16:20 | Discussion: Future priorities for actions, policies and research |
| 17:00 | Closing remarks |
| 17:05 | End |
Funding and in-kind support were provided by The State of Lower Saxony, Thünen Institute, Norwegian Research Council, and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
iCROPM2016 (2016-03-15 to 2016-03-17)
Crop Modelling for Agriculture and Food Security under Global Change
International scientists at the iCROPM2016 Symposium report recent advances in crop modelling and identify challenges and new opportunities
With more than 300 scientists from 47 nations, the iCROPM Symposium in Berlin brought together the major part of the international crop modellers’ scene to exchange ideas on improvement and application of crop simulation models to better support agricultural production and food security under global change. The 3-day symposium, 15-17 March, 2016, hosted by the Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), was jointly organised by the MACSUR and AgMIP research networks.
A total of 85 oral and 130 poster presentations centred on recent scientific work related to model improvement, generation and use of experimental data, and on advancements in model applications considering new methods of model intercomparison, uncertainty propagation and scaling. While the main emphasis was on crops, progress in modelling in related fields, like grassland and vegetation modelling, was also addressed as well as new approaches of model implementation making use of recent software developments. Improvements in crop and cropping system modelling referred to models from field to global level and included efforts to link crop modelling to genetics. Studies to improve modelling of relationships between plant production, pest damage, resource use and management including effects on water and nutrient cycles were also presented.
In summary, the Symposium highlighted the enormous potential for the use of modelling in tackling societal challenges related to agriculture, food security and the environment in Europe and beyond if novelties in technology and data generation are embraced and if the interaction with related disciplines and stakeholders is further strengthened while keeping up good scientific standards.
For an extended summary, addtional photos and more visit www.icropm2016.org.
(04 April 2016, K Brüser, F Ewert, C Nendel)
Impressions of the Symposium
Pre-Conference Announcement:
Global agricultural systems modelling community convening in Berlin
Simulation models for the growth and development of crops have become very popular, especially in the context of climate change impact assessments. But they are also widely used in other fields of agronomy. Agronomists apply models to investigate how present and future climate, different existing and new cultivars and alternative soil and crop management practices will affect the yields, water use and other outputs of crops and how that affects food security and the environment at various levels – from farm to global. In March 2016, agricultural systems modellers will meet in Berlin, Germany, for an international symposium, coordinated by scientists from Germany, Finland, Australia and the USA. The agricultural systems modelling network spans the whole globe and more than 300 participants are expected to show up for the event, organized by the Leibniz Centre of Agricultural Landscape Research in Müncheberg, Germany. Crop models have developed into indispensable tools in the ongoing discussion on global food security, but only their consistent application through global co-operation assures their usefulness and credibility at the interfaces of agronomy with economics and in informing policy-making.
The symposium chairs and the local host
Frank Ewert (DE), Ken Boote (USA), Reimund Rötter (FI), Peter Thorburn (AU) and Claas Nendel (DE)
FACCE MACSUR Joint Workshops 2015 (2015-10-27 to 2015-10-30)
The workshops took place in Braunschweig and gathered 105 participants. The workshops provided an opportunity to exchange information and to align plans across the various groups. Below is a condensed summary of session results. For more details please refer to FACCE MACSUR Reports 7:H0.3-M1 and see the schedule.
XC1 – Model comparison and improvement
Activities were integrated in Session XC6.
(persons to contact: Marco Bindi, Gianni Bellocchi)
Session XC6 – Regional case studies
[No report provided]
(person to contact: Pier Paolo Roggero)
Session XC7 – Impact assessment for Europe
The workshop aims were to 1. Inform each other about the different tasks and perhaps challenges therein. Additional aspects to be considered were the consistency of scenarios across TradeM, CropM and LiveM and the timing of the tasks. 2. Discuss data exchange issues in terms of (1) agreeing on a draft protocol for data exchange between crop, grassland and economic models and (2) clarifying data needs of the regional case study models involved in XC7 (task XC7.5) and the non-modelling assessment (task XC7.6).
Main results: • Discussions revealed an inconsistency in the preferred scenarios by crop and economic modelers. This will be clarified as soon as possible. • Crop and grassland modelers will be able to provide yield changes based on consistent climate scenarios and models and at a resolution suitable for the economic model CAPRI. A common protocol will be used for data exchange. • XC7.5 will compare the baseline assumptions of CAPRI and the regional case studies based on information provided by XC7.1. Results will be compared based on CAPRI result tables compiled by TradeM. • XC7.6 will set up an indicator framework for assessing ecosystem services. The indicator framework will be filled with modeling results at different regional scales.
(This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)
Session XC8 – Extreme climatic events
The aim of this cross cutting activity was to develop a better understanding of the impacts of extreme events on food security in Europe.
Our group discussion highlighted that collectively we felt unclear about what food security actually means in a European context. To understand the impact of extreme events, we must first be able to identify when an extreme event in the European food system has occurred. We decided not to focus on quantifying the effect of extreme events on crop production, as this research is still at a very early stage, and there are many possible extreme events to consider.
It was decided that a useful output would be to establish various indicators of food (in)security in Europe. The aim of this work is to develop some simple metrics or indicators, that an extreme event has occurred in the food system. These may then be used to translate outputs from crop- and economic- models (e.g. changes in production, price increases...) to more tangible food security issues in Europe (e.g. use of food banks, farm closures, increased government spending to compensate farmers...).
We identified that many Europeans are unlikely to become food insecure as a result of extreme climatic events. However, some groups, at a range of scales, could be very vulnerable. We hope to explore these, and other, indicators of food (in)security in Europe.
Governments can be vulnerable: Indicators could include level of government spending to compensate farmers following poor harvests, changes in trade balances, changes in exchange rates.
Consumers across the region can be vulnerable if they spend a high portion of their income on food: Indicators could include the use of food banks.
Some vulnerable communities exist (for example, Welsh hill farmers, smallholders): Indicators could include farm closures.
For more information contact Jacob Bishop, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Session XC11 – Animal feed story
[No report provided]
(Barbara Amon)
Session XC14 – Impact on ecosystem services and rural development
Activities were integrated in Session XC6.
[No report provided]
(Katharina Helming)
Session XC16 – Overall Scenario Development
In this workshop the state of the art of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) and relevant characteristics from the perspectives of different communities were presented.
We discussed how Europe specific RAPs can be extended and further specified based on: 1. global SSPs, 2. EU-SSPs 3 (developed e.g. in the FP7-project IMPRESSIONS), global, regional RAPs developed in AgMIP.
We identified and specified the different indicators needed to develop EU RAPs. For example some goals of the CAP, which are important EU-RAP indicators:
• Income in the farming sector • Rural development • Consumer prices (Market stability, food supply) • Environmental sustainability (Water, GHG, Soil?) • Productivity in agriculture (Competitiveness)
We developed a rough outline of EU-RAPs:
• EU-RAP1: strong CAP, strong shift on environmental regulation, no producer support, green CAP with strong mititgation component
• EU-RAP2: BAU
• EU-RAP3: Europe breaks up, rich countries support farmers with national subsidies, poor countries do not
• EU-RAP4: Europe is divided in a poor and a rich part. In the rich part green CAP, in the poor part no CAP
• EU-RAP5: free market world, strong institutions, weak on enviromental regulations, low domestic polices? Local green CAP without mitigation
We presented a rough outline of EU-RAPs as well as how the European economic model CAPRI could support the implementation of EU RAPs to the session of the regional pilot studies developed in the XC6 (regional case studies)
(Anne Biewald, Franz Sinabell)
Session C1.1 – Model response to variable site conditions on crop production and ecosystem services
The topic of the task session was the introduction to a crop model exercise to evaluate model responses to variable site conditions regarding crop production and ecosystem services. Three data sets were identified to be used by an ensemble of models to test their sensitivity on variable site conditions regarding crop yield, water and nitrogen contents in soil. Data preparation will be finished by January 15th, the exercise will be run by the participating modelers in 3 steps during 2016 and two papers are planned to be drafted by end of 2016/beginning of 2017.
(Christian Kersebaum)
Session C1.3 – Long term effects of management and cropping systems on crop production and ecosystem services
The topic of the task session was to evaluate and compare the long term behavior of crop models with a special focus on soil organic matter dynamics. Models will be compared using data of long term experiments against measured variables. Data sets were presented by P.P. Roggero (IT), D. Ventrella (IT), K. C. Kersebaum (DE). J.E. Olesen also suggested to use data sets from a related project. To look at long term behavior of models under climate change scenarios including adaptation options an extension of the ongoing crop rotation and organic matter management study in Czech Republic was envisaged for sites across Europe running models over a period of 120 years using transient climate scenarios.
(Jørgen Olesen)
Session C1.5 – Incorporation of diseases and pests in crop models
1.1. Definition of steps (milestones) of activities under C1.5
The following steps were derived from the description of the task:
- Identify relevant pests and diseases for major crops in Europe
- Identify what models exist for these pests and diseases
- Existing data on crop health from variety trials (what is available in terms of field data)
- Development of models
- Address occurrence of pests and diseases
- Models for the impact of pests and diseases
- Regional Applications of case studies
1.2. Countries represented in Task C1.5
The break-down of participants/counties by milestones is as follows.
| Milestones | Italy | Norway | UK | France | Sweden | Poland | Germany | Denmark |
| 1. Identify pests and diseases | X | X | X | X | X | x | X | X |
| 2. Available models | X | X | X? | X | ? | |||
| 3. Available Data | X | X | X? | X | X? | X | X | |
| 4. Development of Models | X | X | X | X | X | |||
| 5. Regional Application | X |
1.3. Definition on main crops to address in C1.5
Existing crop models in MACSUR: Wheat (many models), barley, maize, among others; possibly starting grapevine (VITE model, STICS, Nvino); MACSUR might model potato growth (CROPSYST, STICS, HERMES), but not a focus. Based on (1) the importance of crops in Europe, (2) existing P&D research and expertise available among participants of C1.5, and (3) existing models in MACSUR, the selectd target crops in C1.5 are: Wheat, Potato, Grapevine. Additional possible crops in C1.5: Maize, Sugarbeet
1.4 (Multiple) Pathosystems to be considered in C1.5
Wheat pathosystem:
| Yield loss | Quality losses | Impact of current control | Emerging | |
| P. striiformis | X | |||
| P. graminis | X | |||
| Powdery mildew | X | |||
| P. triticina | X | |||
| Septoria’ blotches | X | |||
| Fusarium head blight | X | |||
| Tan spot | X | |||
| Soil-Borne Viruses | ||||
| Wheat dwarf virus | X | |||
| BYDV | X |
Potato pathosystem:
| Yield loss | Quality losses | Impact of current control | Emerging | |
| P. infestans | X | x | X | |
| Rhizoctonia | X | |||
| Nematodes | X | |||
| Virus | X | |||
| Early blight | X | |||
| Ralstonia | X | |||
| Colorado potato beetle | X | |||
| Erwinia | X | X |
Grapevine pathosystem:
| Yield loss | Quality losses | Impact of current control | Emerging | |
| Powdery mildew | X | X | x | |
| Downy mildew | X | X | ||
| Botrytis | X | X | (x) | |
| Berry moth | X | X | ||
| Black rot | X | X | ||
| Japanese beetle | X |
(This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)
Session C3 – Methods of scaling and model linking
[No report provided]
(person to contact: Frank Ewert)
Session C4 – Uncertainty and risk analysis
[No report provided]
(person to contact: Reimund Rötter)
Session L1.3 – Bringing together grassland and farm-scale modelling
[No report provided]
(person to contact: Mats Högbom)
Session L1.4 – Reusing and linking models in livestock farming
The task L1.4 deals with modelling the interactions between farm components (livestock, grassland, animal housing, manure storage, farm management). The argument for this task is as follows. Within agriculture, there has been a long history of model building. This has left a legacy of models, most of which have functionality beyond the initial purpose for their development. Nevertheless, many models are not reused, representing an inefficient use of the considerable resources required to develop new models. Models can be reused by linking existing models but this presents both scientific/conceptual and technical challenges. The former arise because different models may vary in their concepts of the same components. In technical terms, model documentation may be inadequate, models may be implemented in different programming languages/environments or there may be legal or property rights barriers. Past attempts to link models within agriculture have been either via bespoke or generic linkage systems. The former have the advantage that they can be closely tailored to a given objective, but involve a considerable cost. Generic linkage systems provide a framework that can potentially reduce the investment necessary to link models. However, using such linkage systems incurs a cost in terms of the time necessary to learn how to use them and may constrain the functionality that can be achieved.
The conceptual issues that might hinder the reuse of models are:
• Existing models neglect/under-represent important processes — Ruminant livestock systems vary widely (e.g. extensive beef, intensive dairy) and existing models were developed for a different system
• Lack of scientific agreement about processes — Especially the detail with which to represent them
• Cultural differences — e.g. different feed energy accounting systems. The objective of the session was to agree the key functions of farm components, the exchanges of information between them and the frequency with which this should occur.
(Nick Hutchings)
Session LiveM 2.3 – Adaptation in livestock production
The purpose of the workshop was to explore the state of the current thinking and modelling of adaptation to climate change with respect to livestock production. This included modelling the biophysical system, and the effects on the economics of the farming system.
Presentations were invited to explore the current state. Some key points from the discussion are:
- We need to remember that models may not include some relationships that will become important under climate change (perhaps not yet recognised)
- The length and severity of extreme events may limit available management choices, and this is hard to model (e.g. a model may usually apply irrigation in a drought, but previous droughts, or a long drought may mean that irrigation water is not available)
- Farm models can be divided into management-centred economic models, or biophysical models with a limited representation of management (skills/knowledge limitations and complexity of dealing with both domains).
- The workshop explored the key adaptations that are deemed to be of relevance to farming systems, and the technical issues, gaps, how to make the outputs from models more accessible, which were ranked in terms of complexity.
(Kairsty Topp)
Session TradeM
[No report provided]
(Floor Brouwer)
FACCE MACSUR Workshop for policymakers (2015-05-06)
Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades:
— why worry when you have CAP?
A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers
6 May 2015
Brussels, Rue Montoyer 61
on the premises of the Representation of the State of Lower Saxony to the European Union
Local agricultural production is strongly affected by the weather. Climate change is likely to cause increases in extreme weather events, as well as underlying changes in average conditions. If agriculture is to be sustainable and profitable, farmers will need to adapt to these changes. What impacts could climate change have on farming systems across Europe, and how important are they likely to be compared to the impacts of policies?
In order to better answer these questions, the FACCE JPI knowledge hub MACSUR, comprising about 300 researchers in 18 countries, is assessing the current state of the art in the modelling of agricultural systems for food security. At this workshop we invite policymakers and other stakeholders to learn about regional impacts of climate change on European agriculture relative to policies and to inform the research network about the consultation needs of stakeholders.
The presentations are available in FACCE MACSUR Reports volume 6.
| 12:00 | Registration/Lunch/Videos/Posters |
| Part 1: | Modelling for understanding climate change impacts on agriculture |
| Presentations and discussion | |
| 13:15 | Welcome and introduction to MACSUR approach (Martin Banse, Thünen Institute) |
| 13:30 | Crop production (Katharina Brüser, University of Bonn) |
| 13:50 | Livestock and feed production, especially dairy and beef (Jantine van Middelkoop, Wageningen UR) |
| 14:10 | Producer price levels (Floor Brouwer, LEI @ Wageningen UR) |
| 14:30 | Coffee, Tea |
| Part 2: |
Regional impacts of climate change, observations and projections |
| 14:30 | Registration |
| Presentations and discussion | |
| 15:00 | Welcome and overview of MACSUR results (Martin Banse, Thünen Institute) |
| 15:10 | Northern Savo, Finland (Perttu Virkajärvi, Luke Finland) |
| 15:30 | Mostviertel, Austria (Martin Schönhart, University of Natural Resources & Life Sciences) |
| 15:50 | Oristano, Sardinia, Italy (Pier Paolo Roggero, University of Sassari) |
| 16:10 | Impacts of CAP relative to weather, adaptation (Ana Iglesias, Technical University of Madrid) |
| 16:30 | Coffee, tea |
| 16:45 | EU-level assessments and scenarios (Hermann Lotze-Campen, PIK) |
| 17:15 | »The role of European agriculture in a changing world. How to achieve regionally flexible adaptation policies?« Panel discussion with Maddalena Dali' (DG Clima), Herwig Ranner (DG Agri), Louis Fliervoet (the Netherlands' Ministry of Economic Affairs) and Tania Runge (the FACCE Stakeholder Advisory Board and COPA-COGECA). Moderator: Katharina Helming (Center for Agricultural Landscape Research) |
| 18:00 - 18:15 | Wrap-up |
| 18:30 | End |
Funding was provided by The State of Lower Saxony, Norwegian Research Council, and German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
MACSUR Science Conference 2015 (2015-04-08 to 2015-04-10)
The MACSUR Science conference took take place on Wednesday 8th and Thursday 9th April 2015 in Reading UK, and was followed on Friday 10th April with a workshop on within theme and cross cutting activities (aimed at those who will be involved in planning MACSUR 2).
Workshop abstracts and most presentations have been archived in PUBLISSO.
Please see the programme for further details of the conference content and other useful information.
TradeM International Workshop 2014 (25-27 November 2014)
Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector
Climate change, food security, and agricultural production interact in complex ways. A major challenge for scientists is to understand and assess the biological, economic, and ecological interdependencies in the context of climate change and food Security. More and better knowledge is necessary to aid politicians, stakeholders and farmers in their decisions.
The Knowledge Hub FACCE MACSUR (Modelling European Agriculture with ClimateChange for Food Security) (www.macsur.eu) assembles the excellence of Research in Europe in crop, livestock and economic modelling. MACSUR cooperates with the AgMIP community (www.agmip.org) and particularly welcomes AgMIP contributions.
The workshop will bring together researchers with interest in Integrated assessment approaches which are used to analyze agriculture, food security and climate change.
The event has four major goals:
- to critically discuss the state-of-the-art and future perspectives of Integrated assessment approaches
- to study and assess examples of applied modelling approaches integrating crop, livestock, and economic models
- to foster international collaboration in the research areas of food security, climate change, and agrosystem modelling
- to plan and identify next steps to achieve TradeM contributions to MACSUR goals
Keynote speakers:
John Antle, Oregon State University, and co-leader of the Economics Team of AgMIP
Josef Schmidhuber, FAO
Eric Nævdal, Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research at the University of Oslo
Presentations: FACCE MACSUR Reports 4
Venue: Hurdalsjøen Hotel
Funding: Norwegian Research Council and Bioforsk
LiveM Modelling and Research Colloquium (14-16 October 2014)
Conference proceedings are now published here: Advances in Animal Biosciences.
Conference report
The LiveM conference in Bilbao took place between 14th and 16th of October 2014 at the Maritime Museum on the banks of the Nervión-Ibaizabal estuary, bringing together around 45 MACSUR researchers from LiveM, CropM and TradeM, as well as representatives of ATF (Animal Task Force), EAAP (European Federation of Animal Science), the GRA Animal Health and GHG Emissions Intensity Network, AgMIP (Agricultural Modelling Improvement Programme) and the SOLID (Sustainable, Organic and Low Input Dairying) project.
The aims of the meeting were to showcase modelling research related to LiveM and MACSUR, to bring closer ties between partners and the external initiatives represented, and to hold discussions on the future direction and purpose of the theme as the MACSUR knowledge hub moves towards its second phase from 2015-2017.
Before the meeting began, farm-scale modellers met at the Basque Centre for Climate Change to discuss and synthesize the results of the farm-scale modelling exercise carried out over the summer, and the outcomes of this workshop were presented during the main conference.
Day 1 of the conference focussed on grassland and farm-scale modelling, two areas of expertise which will be brought closer together in MACSUR phase 2. Gary Lanigan (Teagasc) began the day with a keynote presentation which focussed on the value of modelling as a complement to experimental research. Gary’s talk focussed on the use of modelling in risk assessments of climate change and in verifying the consequences of management changes on carbon sequestration and N2O emissions, while highlighting the importance of models as decision support tools for farmers, and the need for the careful design of such instruments. Later, we heard from grassland modellers on the outcomes of their model inter-comparison work, including an interesting discussion of uncertainty in grassland modelling. Further presentations brought us the early results of the farm-scale modelling inter-comparison exercise, considered the impacts of management and systemic change at the regional scale and showed how modellers are developing and using models to support and provide advice to farmers and policy makers.
Day 2 had the theme of Livestock productivity, and began with a keynote presentation by Martin Scholten (Wageningen UR) who laid out the challenges and opportunities facing the modelling community at the European and international scales, providing an important insight into the work and priorities of ATF. Subsequent presentations focussed on the impacts of environmental change on animal health, productivity and GHG emissions, including incorporating data on these effects into regional scale modelling in Austria. We also heard about the impact of different feeds on GHG emissions, as well as the importance of enteric fermentation in determining the efficiency with which feed is converted to energy by dairy cattle. Throughout the meeting, sixteen posters representing modelling work from within and beyond MACSUR provided further food for thoughts and discussion.
Eight discussion sessions preceded by introductory talks brought delegates together to debate issues of importance for the theme and the knowledge hub in general. Through these valuable sessions we explored issues such as the future of LiveM, the focus and relevance of our plans for the future, developing our links with external initiatives and projects, training, and the use of the MACSUR knowledge hub to attract funding for and to raise the profile of modelling activities. The outputs of these rich discussions will inform the development of the research community, and proved a valuable tool for stimulating thought and ideas for future research and approaches.
Check out the video summary of the meeting here:
TradeM Workshop (24 September 2014)
Scaling in global, regional and farm modelsAgriculture, food security and climate change: scaling challenges in agricultural models
      Last update: 2014-09-25. |
FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference (1-3 April 2014)
FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference
‘Achievements, Activities, Advancement‘
April 1–3(+4), 2014, University of Sassari, Sardinia, Italy
[Schedule] [Presentations] [Book of Abstracts (PDF)] [Webcasts 
]
The mid-term meeting was held in Sassari, Sardinia, 1-4 April 2014. The meeting was attended by 120 researchers and stakeholders from 16 countries. After a day of looking back on the achievements during the first two years and presenting results to stakeholders, researchers focused on fine-tuning the planning of remaining work for the project till May 2015 and preparations for a follow-up project (MACSUR2) till May 2017. On an excursion, scientists and stakeholders visited farms in the Oristano region, one of the regional case studies of MACSUR. The meeting was a unique opportunity in this pan-European project for discussing in person common issues with and among stakeholders of different regions and how to approach the impact of climate change to producing food in Europe in a world with a growing population.
The food consumed during lunches at the conference originated mostly from the Oristano region. Remaining food in good condition was donated to a charity organisation for needy people.
Excursion: dairy sheep farm "Su Pranu" (Siamanna), dairy cattle farm "Sardo Farm" (Arborea), Arborea Cooperative
A report in La Nueva Sardegna highlighted the conference.
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| Collaboration across countries and disciplines | Advancing modelling for risk assessment of climate change impacts | Outlook and remaining challenges | Interaction with stakeholders: bridging the gap |
CropM International Symposium and Workshop (10-12 February 2014)
Modelling climate change impacts on crop production for food security
10-12 February 2014 at Clarion Hotel Royal Christiana, Oslo, Norway
Final programme Abstract Book Presentations
More photos from the event can be found here
Advanced climate change risk assessments for agriculture and food security depend on robust and reliable modelling tools. Among the various empirical-statistical and mathematical simulation techniques, crop models play a central role as they are at the core of any climate impact assessment for the agricultural sector. These and related topics are addressed in FACCE MACSUR and other agricultural research projects and networks. The last international symposium on crop models capabilities, gaps and challenges dates back more than ten years ago and there is an urgent need to facilitate exchange among ongoing initiatives on crop modelling for food security under climate change.
This first CropM International Symposium and Workshop, held at Oslo, 10-12 February 2014 attempts to fill this gap. It has four major goals:
(i) to discuss the state-of-the-art and future perspectives of crop modelling and approaches for climate change risk assessment, including the challenges of integrated assessments for the agricultural sector
(ii) to develop a joint vision and research agenda for crop modelling for the future
(iii) to present and discuss CropM highlights and related activities and identify next steps to achieve its contribution to MACSUR goals
(iv) to foster international collaboration in the interconnected research areas of food security, climate change and agrosystems modelling
The event was organized by CropM /MACSUR in collaboration with the European Society of Agronomy, AgMIP, CCAFS and other international partners. It was sponsored by the Norwegian Research Council.
CONFIRMED KEYNOTES AT THE SYMPOSIUM:
John R Porter (Denmark): State-of-the-art and future perspectives of crop modelling for climate risk assessment
Gerald C Nelson (USA): Critical Challenges for Integrated Modelling of Climate Change and Agriculture: Addressing the Lamppost Problem
The final programme is available here.
CALL FOR ABSTRACTS
Call for abstracts is now closed. We received plenty of high quality abstracts for both the Symposium and Workshop. Electronic conference proceedings, which include an abstract book, will be published shortly before the event. In addition, there is a plan to prepare a Special Issue of selected papers in Climate Research with Michael Semenov as a Guest Editor. More information on the special issue will follow during and after the symposium and workshop.
Guidelines for oral presentations we will send in January to those selected for presentations.
To still access the abstract submission system (e.g. to check the status of your abstract), click here.
PREPARING YOUR POSTER PRESENTATION
The posters need to be vertical (portrait format) and we recommend to use size A0 (width=841mm height=1189mm, which is width=33.1" height=46.8").
REGISTRATION AND CONFERENCE FEE
Each participant is asked to do his/her own hotel reservations, and pay the cost of room/breakfast. In addition to this, the conference fee is EUR 100 for the full program. It is EUR 70 if you skip the workshop or the symposium. The fee is to cover some of the expenses in relation to the conference, such as lunches, refreshments, meeting facilities and dinner.
Registration is closed.
LOGISTICS
Detailed information on accommodation, travel, local transport, etc. can be found in a pdf of the general information.
If you choose for CLARION HOTEL ROYAL CHRISTIANA make your room reservation by phone: +4722334200, or email: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and indicate you are participant by using booking code: 456183. Negotiated price, including breakfast: Single room NOK 1080, double room NOK 1280 (this is 134€ and 158€ respectively at exchange rate of 21.10.13) There are still rooms left with the negotiated price.
INQUIRIES REGARDING LOGISTICS:This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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THE SCIENTIFIC STEERING COMMITTEE
Confirmed Committee members include: Reimund Rötter and Frank Ewert (co-chairs), Martin Banse and Richard Tiffin (MACSUR hub coordinators), Senthold Asseng, Ken Boote, Jim W. Jones, Alex Ruane and Peter Thorburn (AgMIP), Andy Challinor (CCAFS), Jacques Wery (ESA), Enli Wang (CSIRO, Australia), Mats Höglind (Bioforsk, Norway), and CropM WP leaders: Marco Bindi, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Jorgen E. Olesen, Mirek Trnka, Sander Janssen, Martin van Ittersum, Mikhail Semenov, Mike Rivington, Daniel Wallach, John R. Porter, Jan Verhagen, Derek Stewart and Pier Paolo Roggero.
Regional Pilot Studies Workshop (5-7 June 2013)
Workshop on Regional Pilot Studies, Braunschweig, 5-7 June 2013
The purpose of the Regional Pilot Studies is a simultaneous and interlinked development of a common conceptual framework and actual models and model links. The overall aim of MACSUR is to assist policy makers and actors in the agri-food chain in identifying effective and efficient adaptation and mitigation measures and potential consequence scenarios, e.g. impact on food yield, quality, nutritive value, disease load etc. in perceived hotspots of climate impacts.
At a workshop in Braunschweig (5 - 7 June 2013) MACSUR participants met to define a concrete question to be answered in regional studies as an example for the application of integrated models. "What would be the different contributions of different European adaptation strategies to global food security until 2050 at different scales (farm to EU) while keeping the GHG targets? What investments are necessary? What are the implications?" The Regional Pilot Studies represent the farming systems in northern, central and southern Europe and will expand existing case studies. For compatibility with international research networks AgMIP and ISIMIP the Regional Pilot Studies will apply the new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (especially SSP2 "continuation" but also SSP3 "fragmentation") in conjunction with the Representative CO2 Concentration Pathway of 8.5 W/m2 (most similar to the SRES A2 emission scenario of the IPCC reports).
Till the end of June more details of the Regional Pilot Studies will be set and announced. Stakeholders will be asked to comment on expected model outputs in October. Model results and data will be exchanged among models via 'adapter software' developed in MACSUR that translates different formats. First results will be presented at the MACSUR mid-term meeting in April 2014.
The report on the workshop is available here (PDF).
Presentations
Information
Delivering local-scale climate scenarios for impact assessments in Europe (Mikhail Semenov)
The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSP) framework (Franziska Piontek)
TradeM – steps for regional pilot studies (Floor Brouwer)
LiveM – Contributions to Regional Pilot Studies (Eli Saetnan)
Examples of integrated impact studies
Experiences and insights with metamodels at MTT (Heikki Lehtonen)
Examples of linked models
Stochastic agricultural production model (Øyvind Hoveid)
Regional Pilot Studies - 'Grand Region' reports
Central Europe (Franz Sinabell)
Summary
The Kickoff Workshop (15-16 October 2012)
The Kickoff Workshop (2012-10-15–16, Berlin):
steps towards model integration
While the world population is growing and food preferences change, droughts occur simultaneously in different parts of the world more often. The tangible consequences of global climate change cause higher prices for staple food, which hits poor countries especially hard. In contrast, climate change will rather favour the most productive European agricultural regions. This increases Europe’s responsibility for those parts oft he world that are affected strongly by climate change.
At the start of the project more than 140 scientists gathered in Berlin to plan the joint tasks in this FACCE JPI Knowledge Hub. As a first step, FACCE MACSUR will answer the most urgent questions of climate change effects on agricultural production for selected pilot regions. How will changed weather and climate conditions affect the food production in European regions? What are the consequences for the European contributions to food security globally and which feedbacks can be expected for individual farms?
The keynote lecture by Tim Benton (Global Food Security and University of Leeds) and the keynote lecture by Tim Carter (Finnish Environment Institute – SYKE) set the background by describing the need for assessing future impacts on food security and how to deal with the uncertainty associated with data, models, and projections.
In parallel sessions participants discussed the organization of the work, common approaches to answering the questions, potential pilot regions, involvement of stakeholders, and how the results will be presented. A post-hoc survey filled in by 75 attendees showed that the workshop had answered many organizational issues. But since the project has only started, many more issues must be discussed and clarified in the coming months.
Summaries of the sessions can be found in FACCE MACSUR Reports 1 (archived in PUBLISSO).
Below you find some impressions from the workshop.
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