Regional case studies
Assisting policy makers and actors in the agri-food chain in identifying effective and efficient adaptation and mitigation measures and potential consequence scenarios, e.g. impact on food yield, quality, nutritive value, disease load etc. in perceived hotspots of climate impacts
Adaptation Futures 2016
Presentations and summary available for download
Aim
Advancing science on the modeling of agriculture under climate change to improve food security through interdisciplinary European collaboration
CGRA-Europe
MACSUR CropM now serves as the European hub for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts. ⇒ "global" menu.
Summaries of results, events, presentations
The archives of FACCE MACSUR
Cross-Cutting
Cross-Cutting
Advancement in modelling the links between crops, farms, and socio-economy
Crops
Crops
Advancement in modelling of crops
Livestock systems
Livestock systems
Advancement in modelling of livestock, permanent grasslands, and farms
Economy
Economy
Advancement in modelling of markets and socio-economy


NorwayGeneral information

Name of region Parts of Norway
Global Environmental Zone(s) (Metzger) E. Cold and wet/G. Cold and mesic/F. Extremely cold and mesic/J
Population density (persons per km2)  
Contact (general) Şeyda Özkan
Contact (ag. scenarios) Klaus Mittenzwei
Location (NUTS code) The models used have various spatial disaggregation ranging from spots (crop models) and municipalities (livestock model) the country (sector model).
Dominant regional farming system(s)
(SEAMLESS nomenclature)
 
The three most important
farming systems in region

(SEAMLESS nomenclature)
  • arable-cereal
  • dairy cattle-permanent grass
  • beef and mixed cattle-permanent grass
Main crop species
  • wheat
Main livestock species
  • daıry cattle
  • beef cattle

Regional development goal in rural spatial planning

Regionally balanced agricultural activity across the country

Specific issues the region deals with/will deal with

  • Dry matter yields are weather dependent.
  • Greenhouse gas emissions from dairy/beef cattle systems need to be reduced
  • Economic focus on the trade-off between greenhouse gas emission reductions, food Security, and cultural landscapes
  • The agricultural sector is dominated by dairy, beef and sheep production with a high carbon footprint. Field crop production, which is associated with smaller GHG emissions, is limited largely due to climatic and topographic constraints

Regional challenges with regard to climate change

  • Climate change regards foremost crop production: a prospective of increased average yields as a result of a longer growing season and increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere on the one hand, but on the other hand a higher probability of severe weather conditions in the planting period (too wet, too cold) and in the harvesting period (too wet to access the fields)
  • Indirectly, climate change raises questions about the objectives and means of Norwegian agricultural policy as it is not clear whether the current level of agricultural activity, and even the proposed increase in agricultural activities is sustainable in a national and global perspective

Proposed solutions to overcome the challenges

Contribution to answering the focus question

  • Effects of future climate change (e.g. temperature and soil moisture) on wheat and grass yields are evaluated. The impact of the projected change in dry matter yields on dairy farm greenhouse gas emissions are assessed. The social costs of various adaptation strategies are discussed.
  • Assessment of GHG emissions from typical dairy farms under future climate projections, and suggested adaptation measures to mitigate GHG emissions under these scenarios

Important adaptation measures that are or will be considered in the study

Water management  
Irrigation  
Drainage is important to this region.
Species/varietal choice is important to this region AND is/will be included in the modelling exercise.
Plant breeding is important to this region AND is/will be included in the modelling exercise.
Changed planting/sowing days is important to this region AND is/will be included in the modelling exercise.
Crop rotations  
Alternative tillage methods is important to this region.
Pest/weed management  
Housing of livestock is important to this region.
Land consolidation  
Management of feeding and reproduction of livestock is important to this region AND is/will be included in the modelling exercise.
Structure and scale of production adjustment is important to this region AND is/will be included in the modelling exercise.
Crop insurance  
Exit from agriculture  
Climate alertness  
Political regulations at various administrative levels is important to this region AND is/will be included in the modelling exercise.
Others  
   

Models, stakeholders, advancement of knowledge

Models used in the study
Socio-economyCropsGrasslandLivestock
Jordmod: A spatial, static, multi-commodity partial equilibrium model for the Norwegian Agricultural sector divided into 32 production regions. Single farms at the regional level maximize profits for given prices. These farms constitute the supply side in the market module of the model and are matched with consumer demand to maximize social welfare.Jordmod will need input for crop yields from the crop models and farm management input from the livestock model BASGRA and CSM-CERES simulate crop growth, development and yield with a time step of one day as a function of weather, soil, management and genetics LINGRA model for gras production with a focus on harvest security and biomass yield HolosNor - a detailed livestock model to calculate GHG emissions of livestock systems. Calibrated with farm accounts and biological information for four regions
How are results of of crop and livestock models assimilated in socio-economic models?How is technological progress in arable agriculture taken into account?How is technological progress in livestock farming taken into account?
Linkage between crop, livestock and economic models. Output from one model serves as input for the other models involved. It is planned to make model linkage circular    

Participating stakeholders

Agro-business or agro-food chainAdministrative bodies or regional or national governments

Norwegian Farmers Union

Union of Norwegian Farmers and Smallholders

Norwegian Agricultural Extension Service

Ministry of Agriculture and Food

Ministry of the EnvironmentNorwegian Agriculture Agency

Approaches for involving stakeholders
 

Improvement of the modelling capability by involving stakeholders

How did the modelling capability improve by involving stakeholders?Effect of the involvement of stakeholders on the questions asked, on the assessment, or on the solutions suggested
   
Points that researchers learned from stakeholdersPoints that stakeholders learned from researchers
   

Further information

A stakeholder meeting will he held in spring 2016 and the case study information will be updated after this meeting.

Print